A Chaotic Start to 2026: I Can’t Retire Yet!

Reviewing January’s projects and publications

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

After stepping down as FSI director at the end of 2025, I was hoping for a slow 2026 to recharge, read more, and launch new research projects. So far, none of that has happened due to the swirl of international events in January 2026.

On 3 January, President Trump ordered the U.S. military into Venezuela to arrest Nicolas Maduro at his home in Caracas. This operation, conducted without approval from any international organization or even the U.S. Congress, was achieved without the loss of a single American life. Objectively, that’s an impressive feat. It’s clear this operation to take down a ruthless dictator was expertly planned and executed. What’s less clear is: where does the U.S. plan to go from here?

As I wrote in my Substack piece “The U.S. Priority in Venezuela Must Be Democracy, Not Oil,” long-term evaluations of the success or failure of this intervention will be determined by what happens next. If Trump and his team do not focus on helping to restore democracy but instead work with the remnants of the Maduro regime still in power to gain access to Venezuela’s oil, the military operation will be remembered as a grotesque return to 19th-century colonialism and 20th-century interventionism.

The dust had barely settled on the U.S. intervention in Venezuela when Trump returned to an idea that many had dismissed as folly when he first brought it up last year: Greenland. According to Trump, the U.S. needs Greenland for its national security—despite no mention of this in the 2025 National Security Strategy, published just two months earlier. Invading Greenland would be Trump’s worst idea ever. In fact, that was the title of one of two Substack pieces I wrote on this topic in January, the other being “Trump’s Greenland Idea Is Not Only Insane, It’s Dangerous”.

As I made clear in the two pieces referenced above—as well as in comments on MS Now’s Alex Witt Reports, The 11th Hour with Stephanie Ruhle, and The Weeknight, as well as to journalist Katie Couric—Trump’s plan just made no sense. If we want to increase our military presence in Greenland, we can. A 1951 agreement with our democratic ally and NATO partner, Denmark, allows us to do just that. If we want Greenland’s rare earths, we can buy them—just as we do elsewhere. The whole idea was madness. I’m glad the Europeans pushed back, but American public opinion was also firmly against Trump.

Trump signalled he was pulling back on Greenland during his speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos. That was good news. What cannot be ignored, however, is how damaging this episode—and a growing list of others—has been for the United States. I reflected on the future of U.S.-European relations in my piece “No One Likes a Bully”, and expanded on this during an appearance on The Court of History podcast. Our European allies, unfortunately, no longer trust us. And it’s not just Europe: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has received many plaudits for his speech in Davos, where he spoke of a “rupture” in the liberal international order. This prompted some analysts to proclaim that this era is over. I disagree, as I made clear in my piece: “The Liberal International Order Is Not Dead Yet”. What is certain is that we need to work hard to reform and renew it. My prescriptions for doing so are in the final chapters of my latest book, Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America and the New Global Disorder.

Much focus has fallen on Venezuela and Greenland in the last month, and rightfully so, but there is plenty else happening in the world—not least Iran, where the theocratic regime there has slaughtered tens of thousands of peaceful, pro-democratic protesters in recent weeks. Earlier this month, I spoke with my Stanford colleague Abbas Milani, one of the world’s leading scholars on Iran, about developments in the country. Against the backdrop of ongoing Russian attacks in Ukraine, I also wrote: “Ukraine is not losing the war, but it cannot fight forever”.

Book Tour

This month, I picked up where I left off in 2025 by continuing to travel widely to discuss the ideas in Autocrats vs. Democrats. In addition to giving several local talks, I also traveled to Vero Beach, Florida, and Boise, Idaho, to engage audiences on the themes explored in the book. I was especially thrilled to have so many students from Boise State University at my talk there. They asked some of the best questions of any book tour stop.

If you—or anyone you know—would be interested in hosting an event, please don’t hesitate to reach out. I’m planning swings through southern California in the spring and the northeast in the fall. And of course, you can still purchase Autocrats Vs. Democrats, including those from these outlets listed here! Walmart currently has the book on sale for $22.49! That’s a bargain price, which won’t last long!