A Conversation on the Growing Cracks in Putin’s Dictatorship
A deeper discussion of the arguments behind this week’s essay on Russia’s mounting political and economic pressures.
Earlier this week, I published an essay titled Growing Cracks in Putin’s Dictatorship, examining signs of strain inside Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian system after more than a quarter century in power.
The central argument was not that Putin’s collapse is imminent. Predictions of regime change in Russia have often been wrong, and anyone who studies authoritarian politics learns humility very quickly. Repression remains powerful. The Russian state is still highly coercive and highly capable.
But it is also true that systems built on war, propaganda, and fear can appear stronger than they really are—until suddenly they are not.
In the essay, I explored several developments that deserve closer attention: Russia’s mounting military and economic problems; rising criticism from voices that were previously loyal or silent; growing unease within the elite; expanding censorship and internet controls; and signs that even the Kremlin is increasingly worried about instability.
After publishing the piece, I sat down for a longer conversation digging deeper into some of these themes.
You can watch the full conversation above. And of course, if you haven’t already, read the full piece here!
My usual complaint...
Never mind predictions and tea leaves. Never mind the academic exercise of analyzing issues that don't really need to be analyzed. Never mind the Substack model of using the mass misfortune of millions of our fellow human beings as fodder for our profit seeking little online businesses. Please, let us leap over all of that.
We already know that Putin is a very dangerous mass murdering psychopath. We already know that, thanks to the courageous genius of the Ukrainians, Putin finds himself in some considerable trouble.
The appropriate response from us is not more analysis for profit. The appropriate response is to in some manner join the fight and help the Ukrainians achieve an unambiguous victory over the Russians, much as the Afghans did earlier.
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We can engage in such constructive action by focusing reader's and leader's attention on the most decisive battlefield of this war, the frozen Russian assets in EU banks. It's enough money to fund at least 100,000+ FREE Ukrainian cruise missiles, and/or other needed weapons. Game over for Russia.
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For some mysterious reason, media commentators want to talk about anything and everything except that which holds the most promise for ending this war in a real victory for Ukraine. By doing so they reveal that they aren't actually all that interested in victory for Ukraine, and thus should probably put their focus elsewhere.
It's not just a moral or intellectual issue. If a commentator can't find their way to the bottom line of the Ukraine war, that undermines their credibility, pulls the rug out from under any expert status, and poses a direct threat to their publishing business.
If you think all of this is wrong, ok, good, so make your case and let's discuss it.
Its hard to predict anything when the focus of the study is mostly on those in power and not the people. Not as sexy but thats where all the shit starts and happens.