Biden’s Unfinished Business on Ukraine

The outgoing president still has the chance to shape his legacy on the Russia-Ukraine war.

When historians write books on President Biden and his administration, Biden’s response to Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 will be the most significant chapter in the foreign policy section. We already know how that chapter starts. What we don’t know is how it ends. President Biden still has several weeks to make pivotal decisions that would enhance Ukraine’s capacity to defend its territory, better prepare Ukraine for post-war reconstruction, and thereby shape his legacy on foreign policy legacy more favorably.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the United States of America in December 2022. Source: President of Ukraine

First, President Biden and his administration must transfer all allocated funds and weapons to the government of Ukraine, approved in April 2024’s aid package, before January 20, 2025. The efforts to achieve this goal are underway. In his remarks to the press at NATO headquarters, Secretary Blinken affirmed President Biden’s commitment to push every dollar at his disposal out the door between now and January 20^th.  Biden must use all his presidential powers to ensure the goal is achieved.

Second, President Biden must immediately lift all restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American weapons against military targets in Russia. This policy change is long overdue. Article 5 of the United Nations Charter gives Ukraine the right to self-defense. We must retire the strange logic that Russia can attack Ukraine from anywhere within Russia, but Ukraine cannot strike back. Fears of escalation, including Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons, prompted concerns about lifting the ban. However, the probability of such an escalation—which, in my view, was always low—is now even lower given Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. There is absolutely no way Putin is going to use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine just weeks before Trump’s return to office. Therefore, there is no downside to lifting this constraint today.

Third, President Biden must transfer all assets of the Russian Central Bank currently held in American banks to the government of Ukraine or an international foundation committed to Ukrainian reconstruction. These funds amount to some $300 billion, of which the most significant share has been seized by the Europeans. These funds should be transferred as soon as possible to help finance the Ukrainian government and reconstruction. Considering that Russia’s unprovoked war has inflicted hundreds of billions of dollars of damage on the Ukrainian economy, it’s only just that the international community should impose some of these costs on the Russian state itself. How could any president or prime minister ever give these funds back to Putin?  Seizing assets of the Russian state after Putin invaded and annexed Ukraine also sets a positive, deterrent precedent to other world leaders thinking about using military force to annex territory. And we should not want criminals to do their banking in the democratic world. While the sum (estimates range from $8 billion to $39 billion) confiscated by the United States is just a fraction of the total currently frozen by the West, A Biden decision now will make it easier for Europeans to follow suit. For the details, read here.  

Fourth, President Biden must tighten sanctions on Russia’s energy industry. The most straightforward and most effective step would be to sanction every ship currently operating in Russia’s shadow tanker fleet.  Biden should also sanction more of Russia’s energy companies and banks, including Rosatom and Gazprombank. Biden should also work with his counterparts in the G-7 to ratchet down the price cap on Russian oil exports from $60 per barrel to $50. For more detailed recommendations on new energy sanctions, read Working Group Paper #21: The Path Forward on Energy Sanctions (November 15, 2024).

Fifth, Biden should finally declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. For why Russia qualifies and how this could be done, read Working Group Paper #5: The Case for Designating the Russian Federation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism (September 28, 2022). How can Cuba be on this list but not Russia? This makes no sense. Moreover, in taking this action now, Biden would be doing Trump a favor. Trump could use lifting this designation as a chit to play in negotiating a deal to end the war in Ukraine.

There are many more actions I wish President Biden had taken to help Ukrainians repel the Russian invasion of their country earlier. But let’s leave that discussion to the historians. Today, Biden still has the chance to shape history. These five steps can help Ukraine immensely if achieved before January 20, 2025.