I just finished your fascinating and informative book "From Cold War to Hot Peace", a "must read" for all who want to understand the "diplomatic dance" necessary to be an ambassador working in the Soviet Union under Putin and his gang. You, ( and your family), deserve a great deal of gratitude for your service as a highly respected ambassador in this era of brinkmanship with the USSR.
Press reports from EuroMaidan indicate that the counteroffensive may have begun with preparatory moves opposite Tokmak -- a town which, if taken, would allow Ukrainian forces to pivot either to Melitopol or Enerhodar, or both. This would be the most predictable first move, if indeed it is taking place. Ukrainian military action of some sort is also reported around Vuhledar, the site of crushing Russian defeats earlier in the year. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/20/frontline-update-ukraines-counteroffensive-has-begun/
Perhaps in your introductory paragraphs, describing the nuanced way TS//SCI or SAP material is handled, you could describe the work of “US Government Classifiers” - those high level USIC officers granted authority to originally determine the level of HUMINT reporting or document classification.
In addition, it’s my understanding the “over classification” of documents by United States Government is pervasive in USIC/DOD and has been a systemic problem for decades.
If the outcome of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is not certain and it would cost many thousand lives of the Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, why don't both sides mitigate the risks by sitting to the negotiation table and making a reasonable deal? As a US taxpayer I would like our government to push the Kiev government into negotiation instead of wasting money on unreasonable folks in Kiev who want to punish Crimeans for sticking to their Russian culture by forcing the Ukrainian language down their throats.
I am advocating pushing both sides to negotiate. My problem is: so far every push for Russia sounds like an ultimatum. Something like: "we are not going to negotiate unless Russian leaves Crimea now". From my perspective a request for Russia to leave Crimea and Donbass as a prerequisite to negotiation is not reasonable. The Ukrainian activists and (if I remember correctly) the members of the Ukrainian government already voiced on multiple occasions their plans on how they are going to revenge on the "collaborators" after they take back Crimea. It is clear to me that they would try to harass and annoy the local population, starting from forcing medical doctors to maintain their records in Ukrainian (this is similar to forcing everybody in the Bay Area to switch to Spanish), nullifying the real estate transactions etc.
Maybe, when Ukraine takes back Crimea, the Tartars and others who were forced to leave would come back. Russian tourists can return to Russia and Russia could also return the children of Ukraine. The language issue is a non-issue.
Russia has committed an illegal act with the invasion of Ukraine. If there is to be any negotiation they could first stop threatening to nuke Kyiv, London, Berlin, etc. Very little good faith is evident although there is a great deal of bogus fabrication.
Why specifically Tatars? Why not for example Greeks? Crimea had Greek colonies back in ancient times. Tatars were not a majority in Crimea even back in 19 century. It was a Russian place even back then (Russian concentrated in cities, Tatars in mountains and rural areas).
That the Tartars were not a majority is beside the point. Since 2014 Russia has been imprisoning and deporting Crimea’s indigenous peoples.
I was being sarcastic when I made mention of Russian tourists. Similar to little green men except they never left. The number of children kidnapped by the Russians fluctuates but it is in the many thousands. Where do those Ukrainian children belong?
There will be no negotiations so long as civilians are targeted, infrastructure is destroyed, children are stolen and Russia’s private and official militaries remain on legal Ukrainian territory.
Google the Tartars and what Russia has been doing to them. Save your ancient history arguments for a history topic.
A good and sound argument. With regards to whether the Ukrainian offensive succeeds or not it all comes down to the (mass) psychological judgement of whether the Russian troops defending will fight or surrender/flee. Guessing human behaviour is always a matter of weighing up uncertainties. The only way to find out is to see what happens.
I just finished your fascinating and informative book "From Cold War to Hot Peace", a "must read" for all who want to understand the "diplomatic dance" necessary to be an ambassador working in the Soviet Union under Putin and his gang. You, ( and your family), deserve a great deal of gratitude for your service as a highly respected ambassador in this era of brinkmanship with the USSR.
Press reports from EuroMaidan indicate that the counteroffensive may have begun with preparatory moves opposite Tokmak -- a town which, if taken, would allow Ukrainian forces to pivot either to Melitopol or Enerhodar, or both. This would be the most predictable first move, if indeed it is taking place. Ukrainian military action of some sort is also reported around Vuhledar, the site of crushing Russian defeats earlier in the year. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/20/frontline-update-ukraines-counteroffensive-has-begun/
Perhaps in your introductory paragraphs, describing the nuanced way TS//SCI or SAP material is handled, you could describe the work of “US Government Classifiers” - those high level USIC officers granted authority to originally determine the level of HUMINT reporting or document classification.
In addition, it’s my understanding the “over classification” of documents by United States Government is pervasive in USIC/DOD and has been a systemic problem for decades.
I told you. Google it. Since 2014 it’s been going on. If you don’t wish to believe it, that is on you.
If the outcome of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is not certain and it would cost many thousand lives of the Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, why don't both sides mitigate the risks by sitting to the negotiation table and making a reasonable deal? As a US taxpayer I would like our government to push the Kiev government into negotiation instead of wasting money on unreasonable folks in Kiev who want to punish Crimeans for sticking to their Russian culture by forcing the Ukrainian language down their throats.
Why are you not advocating for countries to push for Putin to negotiate? He’s the problem.
I am advocating pushing both sides to negotiate. My problem is: so far every push for Russia sounds like an ultimatum. Something like: "we are not going to negotiate unless Russian leaves Crimea now". From my perspective a request for Russia to leave Crimea and Donbass as a prerequisite to negotiation is not reasonable. The Ukrainian activists and (if I remember correctly) the members of the Ukrainian government already voiced on multiple occasions their plans on how they are going to revenge on the "collaborators" after they take back Crimea. It is clear to me that they would try to harass and annoy the local population, starting from forcing medical doctors to maintain their records in Ukrainian (this is similar to forcing everybody in the Bay Area to switch to Spanish), nullifying the real estate transactions etc.
Maybe, when Ukraine takes back Crimea, the Tartars and others who were forced to leave would come back. Russian tourists can return to Russia and Russia could also return the children of Ukraine. The language issue is a non-issue.
Russia has committed an illegal act with the invasion of Ukraine. If there is to be any negotiation they could first stop threatening to nuke Kyiv, London, Berlin, etc. Very little good faith is evident although there is a great deal of bogus fabrication.
Why specifically Tatars? Why not for example Greeks? Crimea had Greek colonies back in ancient times. Tatars were not a majority in Crimea even back in 19 century. It was a Russian place even back then (Russian concentrated in cities, Tatars in mountains and rural areas).
That the Tartars were not a majority is beside the point. Since 2014 Russia has been imprisoning and deporting Crimea’s indigenous peoples.
I was being sarcastic when I made mention of Russian tourists. Similar to little green men except they never left. The number of children kidnapped by the Russians fluctuates but it is in the many thousands. Where do those Ukrainian children belong?
There will be no negotiations so long as civilians are targeted, infrastructure is destroyed, children are stolen and Russia’s private and official militaries remain on legal Ukrainian territory.
Google the Tartars and what Russia has been doing to them. Save your ancient history arguments for a history topic.
*** Since 2014 Russia has been imprisoning and deporting Crimea’s indigenous peoples. ***
Can you present a link from a respectable source about it?
A good and sound argument. With regards to whether the Ukrainian offensive succeeds or not it all comes down to the (mass) psychological judgement of whether the Russian troops defending will fight or surrender/flee. Guessing human behaviour is always a matter of weighing up uncertainties. The only way to find out is to see what happens.