Finally, Trump Seems to Get Putin
I hope it lasts and will have enduring policy consequences.
This article was first published in The Time Magazine yesterday, on July 16, 2025. Please read it here or below.
President Donald J. Trump seems to have finally figured out who Vladimir Putin really is. In announcing the sale of new U.S. weapons to NATO countries that will then transfer weapons to Ukraine, Trump has finally pivoted away from his failed policy of appeasing the Russian dictator. He also suggested that the U.S. is prepared to impose sanctions on countries importing Russian oil and gas. That’s also new, and if it occurs, welcome.
Trump’s change in approach toward Putin was a very long time in the making. I first wrote op-eds criticizing Trump’s bromance with Putin over a decade ago. In 2017, I even gave a TED Talk called Why do Trump and Putin get along so well? Throughout his first term, Trump remained loyal to Putin, despite many of his senior foreign policy advisers urging him to change tack. Most shockingly, at the 2018 Helsinki summit, Trump sided with Putin over his intelligence community when he wrongly affirmed that there was no Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
In the first months of his second term, Trump stayed loyal to Putin. He showered the Russian autocrat with countless concessions to get him to end his invasion of Ukraine, including signaling a willingness to lift sanctions and recognize Crimea as part of Russia. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, repeatedly praised the Russian strongman in their private meetings. Meanwhile, Trump called Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator, and in a humiliating Oval Office meeting, Vice President J.D. Vance asked the Ukrainian President why he never says thank you. And instead of inducements, Trump only pressured Ukraine as a means to end the war, even suspending military aid.
So, Trump’s criticism of Putin lately and his policy changes are significant. Putin has made a grave mistake in handling Trump. After Trump offered Putin sweeping concessions—which if accepted would have produced a terrible peace deal for Ukraine—the Russian leader only demanded more. It wasn’t enough that he would be allowed to occupy five Ukrainian regions and keep Ukraine out of NATO. Putin also demanded that the West stop providing weapons to Ukraine and even insisted that Zelensky be removed before Russia would negotiate a peace deal.
As he has done in the past—be it election meddling, propping up Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, or most egregiously launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that failed to accomplish his goals—Putin overreached. He asked for too much, believing that Trump would either acquiesce or just abandon Ukraine. Putin maybe had reason to believe that he could get more from a U.S. President who seemed unconcerned about the details of a peace deal and just focused on claiming success in ending the war. (Trump vowed to end the war on "day one" and covets a Nobel Peace Prize.) However, Trump is also an impatient leader. When Putin showed little interest in genuine peace talks, Trump began to look weak. Finally, and thankfully, he had enough.
Trump’s NATO deal will lead to large-scale arms deliveries for Ukraine and profits for American weapons makers. I would have liked to see the U.S. also participate in providing some future military assistance to Ukraine. We, after all, are also a member of the defense alliance. We should share the burden of this mission.
I also applaud Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on countries that import Russian oil and gas. But why must we wait 50 days before implementing them? Trump can act today through executive action. I am also worried that he may not follow through by the deadline. China and India are the top two recipients of Russian energy exports, and the expectation that they will pressure Putin to end his war in the next 50 days seems naïve.
My final worry is that an unpredictable Trump will simply change his mind. One bad phone call with Zelensky or good conversation with Putin could see Trump change course again.
Nonetheless, his rhetoric and policy toward Russia is much better today than it was over the previous decade. Let’s celebrate the win this week, and hope for even more in the coming months.
Ambassador McFaul has presented the best-case scenario for President Trump's recent policy shifts in the hopes that -- at last -- Trump has seen Putin for what he truly is and has had a sincere change of heart.
I remain unconvinced. There is, unfortunately, a compelling case that can be made that Trump's motives are purely selfish. As we all know, Trump likes to claim credit where it is not due, and he also tends to lose interest in any endeavor that has no immediate payoff. That's where his "TACO" reputation comes in. It is usually applied to his tariff policy, but it can also apply to difficult foreign policy questions. He tries a quick PR move. If it fails, he drums up a distraction or two and moves on, waiting for the next opportunity.
Trump has been getting quick payoffs from Russia even before he made Putin's acquaintance. For decades, the Russians have been dangling deals and throwing money Trump's way, and he has repaid them by repeating Russian "active measures" lines, going back to September 1987, when, just after his first trip to Moscow, he published "an open letter to the American people" arguing against paying to defend wealthy allies when they should be footing the bill. Trump's dreams of untold Russian riches never quite panned out, but the promise was always there, and significant Russian money kept flowing into his enterprises.
Putin inherited the job of keeping Trump on side, and for years, he did so with ease. But Trump allowed himself to believe -- or at least to claim -- that he held some special power that would enable him to do deals with Russia and make peace easily where others had failed. Trump especially craves the adulation that would come from quick diplomatic victories -- such as peace in Ukraine within 24 hours, or maybe two weeks, or now, 50 days.
Instead, Putin has prevaricated and procrastinated, and Trump is certainly miffed, but I doubt the scales have fallen from his eyes. What he has is a case of wounded ego. Most likely, he has not given up on Putin at all. He's just waiting for the next opportunity. In the meantime, he's still running interference for Putin, even while claiming to get tough.
For example, President Trump recently announced plans for punitive secondary tariffs on Russia, but he didn’t enact them right away. What he did do was head off Lindsey Graham, Richard Blumenthal, et al, who were pushing for 500% secondary tariffs on Russia (i.e., tariffs on countries that buy Russian uranium, oil, gas, etc.). Instead, he announced that 50 days from now, he would be imposing 100% secondary tariffs on Russian goods if by then, Putin had not halted hostilities against Ukraine.
This move by Trump makes perfect PR sense because Putin had already told him on July 3 that Russia would be conducting intensified offensive operations against Ukraine for the next 60 days. So, what did Trump do? He announced on July 13 that he would take action against Russia in 50 days, just when Putin's offensive was scheduled to end, with plenty of time to find an excuse for not imposing new sanctions at all.
Also, President Trump announced that he would be sending new arms shipments to Ukraine – except, there's a big catch. Some arms will be direct from the U.S., but mostly he’ll be selling arms to NATO countries, who will then give them to Ukraine, quantities TBD, but certainly much smaller than the arms shipments the Biden administration sent, and cutting into Europeans' budgets for arms to Ukraine. So, much to Europe's consternation, Trump is claiming PR credit for arms that they will pay for. A quick PR victory for Trump, and who knows when those arms will arrive, or in what quantities?
Meanwhile, Ukraine has to play nice and pretend that Trump is doing them a favor. And our NATO allies will have to continue coddling Trump for fear of what he will do next.
And Putin is counting the days...
I agree that's it's an big improvement in the rhetoric but I'll believe it when I see confirmed follow through. Trump has been pro Putin for a very long time and he doesn't strike me as the sort whose word is his bond.