From Ukraine to Iran: A World Growing More Dangerous

My writing, interviews, and events from February 2026

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

February is always a poignant month for me.

It was in February 2014, when Russian soldiers first invaded Ukraine, seizing Crimea and supporting separatist movements in eastern Ukraine. Just a year later, on the same day, Boris Nemtsov, my friend and prominent Putin critic, was assassinated just steps from the Kremlin. In February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine— a devastating and bloody war that has claimed more than one million lives and still continues to this day. And on February 16, 2024, another friend of mine, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, was murdered by the Putin regime. It was recently reported that the toxin used to poison Navalny was derived from a dart frog found in South America, underscoring the extraordinary and cruel lengths this brutal regime will go to silence its critics.

At Stanford, we marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine by co-hosting a panel featuring four Stanford alums from Ukraine: journalist Anastasiia Malenko, Ukrainian MPs Oleksii Movchan and Oleksandra Ustinova, and former Ukrainian ambassador to Canada Andriy Shevchenko. The panelists firmly rejected “land-for-peace” proposals that would require Ukraine to cede territory in exchange for vague security guarantees. I also discussed the anniversary on Times Radio, Sky News, MS NOW, and in a piece for the i Paper.

Discussing Russia’s ongoing invasion with Stanford alumns from Ukraine

On Substack, I published The Four Tragic Years of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine. It is hard to believe the war is still ongoing. Yet despite extraordinary suffering, Putin has failed to achieve his initial objectives. While this strengthens my conviction that the Ukrainians will ultimately prevail, I remain unconvinced that Moscow is engaging in the peace negotiations in good faith. I discussed these concerns in a recent Substack conversation following the latest Geneva talks, as well as in a live Q&A with subscribers. I hope to host more of these discussions, alongside my regular Zoom calls.

With so much happening, there is another major development that received far too little attention. On February 5, the New START Treaty—the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia—expired. I participated in those negotiations while serving on the National Security Council during President Obama’s first term, so this moment felt personal. With no limits now in place on deployed strategic nuclear weapons, it feels like the world has become a more dangerous place. More on this here.

Munich Security Conference

As I do most years in February, I attended the annual Munich Security Conference. Much of the discussion there centered on the growing strain in transatlantic relations. I share concerns about the damage President Trump has inflicted on America’s alliances and the broader international order. His proposal to annex Greenland remains one of the most reckless foreign policy ideas in modern U.S. history.

Meeting Ukrainian warriors at the Munich Security Conference

What troubled me most in Munich, however, was the effective abandonment of Ukraine by my government. As an American, I found that deeply frustrating and embarrassing. The policy is immoral and contrary to U.S. security interests. I wrote more about this in my Substack essay, An Embarrassed American in Europe. I remain hopeful that it is not too late for the United States to return to the side of democracy and sovereignty.

Iran

And then, February ended with President Trump launching a major war against Iran.

I was sharply critical of the Trump administration’s decision in early February to reopen talks with Iran’s theocratic regime—particularly after the president had encouraged anti-government protesters to “rise up” and “take over your institutions.” In my Substack essay, Why and How the U.S. Should Support Democracy in Iran, I argued that renewed nuclear negotiations at that moment would hand the regime a lifeline. I also outlined alternative policies to support democratic change while cautioning against military intervention.

By the end of the month, events took a dramatic turn. President Trump announced major joint U.S.–Israeli combat operations in Iran during which Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed. The fall of a tyrant is always a moment worth acknowledging, and I exchanged many joyous messages with my Iranian-American friends that day. But as I wrote in The Day After the Fall of a Dictator, the central question is what comes next. I am concerned about the lack of strategic clarity guiding U.S. policy. Will Washington now negotiate with remnants of the regime, as it did in Venezuela? It remains unclear.

I explored these issues further in a live Substack Q&A with Katie Couric.

Other

Reflecting on the events of the past two months—Venezuela, Greenland, and now Iran—I am convinced it was the right decision to retitle my latest book Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder. (The original title was Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, and the New Global Order.)

In the book, I lay out a vision for U.S. foreign policy centered on engagement, cooperation with allies, and a renewed commitment to democratic principles at home and abroad. Regrettably, the second Trump administration is pursuing many of the opposite policies from those I recommend.

I discussed several of the book’s central arguments in a recent appearance on the Uncommon Knowledge podcast with Peter Robinson. Take a listen. I really enjoyed this conversation.

And, as always, you can purchase Autocrats vs. Democrats through the outlets listed here!

Thank you for reading—and for your continued engagement.