McFaul's April 2025 Newsletter
My most recent projects and publications
Dear Friends and Colleagues,
In April, I had a final, big push to finish my upcoming book, Autocrats vs Democrats. Given Trump’s consequential executive orders and policies, I had to update several key sections. That’s the difficulty of writing a book on current events—things change faster than books get published. I also decided to change the book’s subtitle to better reflect our new realities. Instead of China, Russia and the New World Order, it is now China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder. You can already pre-order the book here or here. The release date is set for October 28, 2025!
This month, I also continued to participate in public policy debates, commenting especially on Trump’s foreign policy agenda toward Ukraine, Russia, and China. On Substack, I wrote “Trump’s Irrational and Ineffective Policy Toward China,” “Why Is Trump Acting like Putin’s Agent,” “The US-Ukraine ‘Minerals Deal’ is Win-Win for Americans and Ukrainians,” and “Time for Europe to Take the Lead on Sanctioning Russia.” I also published a trip report from Taiwan and re-upped one of my older yet still relevant pieces explaining why the State Department needs restructuring.
On Substack, I also held a terrific live Q&A session via Zoom. It was great to see some familiar faces among my readers—thank you to everyone who joined! As always, there were many great questions, some of which I could not answer, but they will now stimulate future essays on the platform. For those who couldn’t join, please consider supporting me on Substack at
, and then join me for the next session. I’m also looking for ideas for how to improve my presence on Substack, so suggestions are most welcome.
In April, together with a political scientist from Georgetown, Evan Medeiros, I wrote “China and Russia Will Not Be Split” in Foreign Affairs, as well as published “Don’t Join the Autocrats!” in The New York Review of Books.
Together with my colleague and friend Larry Diamond, I had a one-hour conversation about America's place in the world in the Trump era. You can watch it here. On my podcast, World Class, I also discussed European security issues with Jim Goldgeier, a professor at American University and visiting scholar at CISAC. You can find that episode below and earlier ones here.
On MSNBC this month, I commented on Trump’s negotiation strategy in the Ukraine-Russia peace talks. I criticized the Trump administration for failing to put any real pressure on Russia (watch here) and giving too many concessions to Putin, including, in particular, talks about recognizing Crimea as Russian (watch here).
I am still hopeful that an end to Russia’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine can be negotiated. President Trump’s commitment to mediate a peace settlement has generated new buzz about the contours of a deal. I have my own concrete ideas for the conditions that could produce a lasting and just peace. I still believe my formulation for how to end the war guarantees lasting peace. You can read the details in Foreign Affairs in my essay called How Trump Can End the War in Ukraine. However, given that Trump is not supportive of Ukraine joining NATO, I hope other formations provide a lasting and credible security guarantee for Ukraine. It is not an achievement to stop the war for a while only to have Putin launch a third invasion sometime in the future,
To try to hasten the end of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I continue to coordinate the International Working Group on Russian Sanctions and remain in close contact with my Ukrainian colleagues. This week, we published our latest paper, Action Plan 4.0: Strengthening Sanctions Against the Russian Federation. As always, we are looking for new ideas, so please share if you have any!
At FSI, we have many more events coming up before the end of the school year in June. To stay updated on events, opportunities, and policy recommendations by scholars at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, please sign up for FSI’s email blasts and follow us on LinkedIn. Feel free to share your comments on the content below and any suggestions for improving this newsletter. To sign up for the newsletter, please click here. I hope you join us in person or online for our fabulous events!
Keep in touch,
Mike