McFaul's July and August 2025 Newsletter
My most recent projects and publications
Dear Friends and Colleagues,
I usually send out a newsletter every month, but I slipped up over the summer, so consider this a catch-up for July, August, and a bit of September! It wasn’t a lapse, however, due to vacations and slow news cycles! In fact, August was especially busy for the world, and thus for me as well.
Trump’s twin summits—first in Alaska between the U.S. and Russia, then in Washington with Ukrainian and European leaders—sparked a flurry of media engagements for me in August. When previewing Alaska for the Kyiv Independent and again for MSNBC, I drew on my own experiences of being in the room during negotiations with Putin to discuss how one might approach such talks. That advice would not have included a red-carpet welcome for an indicted war criminal.
Yet that’s exactly what happened: Putin was greeted in Alaska with a ceremonial reception and a warm handshake from Trump. As I told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, this display was wildly inappropriate. While I support Trump’s willingness to engage with Putin—diplomacy requires talking to dictators as well as democratically elected leaders—that does not mean we should check our values at the door. I learned that lesson from my long-time mentor, George Shultz.
The meeting in Alaska was a gift to Putin. Had a ceasefire been secured, along with a commitment from Putin to meet directly with Zelenskyy, it might have been worth it. However, neither of these modest goals was achieved. The summit did not serve the interests of the U.S., our allies in Europe, or our partners in Ukraine, as I shared live on Nicolle Wallace’s show on MSNBC.
I was far more positive about the summit that took place in Washington. In fact, the White House even quoted me in one of their press statements about the meeting! It was great to see European leaders such as the UK’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni—an ideological ally of Trump—show up in support of Zelenskyy. As I said during a live appearance on NBC, the timing was significant. It came just days after the Alaska summit, after which Trump appeared to walk back on his earlier call for a ceasefire as a prerequisite for peace negotiations. The Washington summit helped put that ceasefire proposal back on the table—just as Trump was reversing position.
The discussions in Washington around security guarantees for Ukraine, with European participation and U.S. backing, also marked real progress. In a Substack review of the two summits, I argued that the best security guarantee for Ukraine remains NATO membership. But with Trump taking that off the table, we must now explore second-best options. The key is that any guarantees we offer must be credible—a point I expanded upon in an article for Foreign Affairs, where I laid out why credible security arrangements are a prerequisite for lasting peace in Ukraine. Read more about that here.
The summits also provided opportunities for extended conversations with John Heilemann, Charlie Rose, and Katie Couric on their respective podcast and YouTube channels. Long-form interviews are rare these days, so I appreciated the chance to explore the implications of both summits in greater depth.
Speaking of extended interviews, in July I sat down with prominent YouTuber and exiled Russian journalist Yury Dud for a wide-ranging conversation about sanctions, democracy, Ukraine, and the moral choices confronting Russians in exile and at home. I’ll tell you honestly that I was nervous about doing this interview. I said one thing that I later regretted (that Russians should have to give up their passports to become American citizens). But the interview generated a ton of reaction from both Russians and Ukrainians—maybe the most emails I have ever received from one media appearance.
In July, I also joined Slate’s What Next podcast to discuss whether Trump’s arms announcement (the U.S. would sell weapons to NATO allies, who could then transfer them to Ukraine) signaled a broader shift in strategy from his administration.
On my own World Class podcast, I spoke with my Stanford colleague Larry Diamond, one of the world’s leading experts on democracy, about evolving trends in democratic progress and backsliding around the world—including right here in the United States. It’s a timely and thought-provoking conversation, and well worth a listen.
On Substack, I wrote: Trump’s Terrible Tariffs, The Long-Term Negative Consequences of Unilateralism, Suspending Military Aid to Ukraine Does Not Benefit American National Interests, and, after the U.S. authorized weapons sales to NATO allies for Ukraine, Finally, Trump Seems to Get Putin. Additionally, I wrote: Ukrainian Democracy Faced a Big Test and Passed, and The Real Meaning of Putin’s Middle East Failure.
This summer, Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law welcomed 27 democracy activists from around the world for three weeks of training as part of the Fisher Family Summer Fellows on Democracy and Development Program (formerly Draper Hills). Now in its 20th year, this program remains one of my favorite parts of the summer. It’s always an honor to meet such a diverse group of bold, principled leaders committed to advancing freedom and justice in their home countries.
]This year, we were especially lucky to have four Ukrainian fellows join us. They stayed on for three extra weeks at Stanford to deepen their work on projects aimed at supporting Ukraine’s democratic recovery. Their determination, clarity of purpose, and resilience—in the face of enormous challenges—were truly inspiring. I gave several lectures in the program and also hosted everyone for a fantastic party at our house. Dancing included, of course!
I ended the summer by speaking last week at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy, at a fantastic conference called “Intelligence on the World, Europe, and Italy.” That event proved it's possible to both learn and relax in a gorgeous place. My only regret was having the speaking slot right after President Zelenskyy (via video)—tough act to follow!
Looking ahead to next month, my new book, Autocrats vs Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder, comes out on October 28! This is my most ambitious book yet. I’m excited to share this book and the ideas behind it, written not just for D.C. insiders but for readers across the country. At a time when democracies are under threat around the world, I want to engage all Americans in a conversation about why global leadership—not retreat—best serves our national interests. In the book, I argue that the path forward for the U.S. lies in renewed international engagement, strong democratic leadership, and a clear recommitment to our economic and military strength.
If that sounds compelling—or even if you disagree and want to debate me—pre-order your copy now, here or here!
And stay tuned for information about the many book talks I will be giving in the fall.
Keep in touch,
Mike
I appreciate everything you have been sharing, Michael, when it comes to geopolitical affairs, and I am looking forward to reading your upcoming book on autocrats vs democrats.
I believe that to be an important legacy of World War II, one among many.
My Dad and I have been having many intense conversations about what is going on, both in America and around the world. My Dad lives in Guam and regularly travels to Asia (particularly Southeast Asia), so he has been seeing firsthand the dramatic improvements - political and economic - that have occurred in countries like Thailand and the Philippines. But living on Guam, he also sees firsthand the U.S. military at work.
Right now, he is very concerned, Michael about America’s domestic politics. He is very concerned not only about President Trump but also the American people. He is concerned that large numbers of Americans no longer believe in democracy, that if rule by strongmen will protect their privileges - whatever those may be - against their “enemies” foreign and domestic they will support that.
He is worried not only that American democracy is breaking down, but that there will be civil war as that system breaks down.
I share my Dad’s concerns, Michael, even if I may not share his outlook.
We are dealing with a unique situation not only in American history but also world history, one that can have far reaching consequences for everyone in the world, not just Americans.
I personally believe that most Americans still believe in democratic norms and principles. I do not believe most Americans yearn for dictatorship. But I do worry that if enough Americans believe their country is in a crisis, in an “emergency,” they will allow dictators to deal with the emergency, not realizing that in an emergency or crisis, it is very easy to destroy what you are trying to save.
My Dad’s concerns are very legitimate ones, Michael. And I know he is not the only who harbors them. Alot of others - in America and around the world - do.
But as difficult as it is right now to see beyond the crisis, that is what I am trying to do. It is what I believe we need to do, if only to help prepare - and inspire - our children for a more peaceful world, one in which everyone - including Americans - can see the value in everyone.
In that future, I still have hope.
Aloha 🌏🇺🇸🙏🏼
Ambassador McFaul, at this time you are one of my “North Stars”, so I find your links to things I have missed very helpful. Gratefully, Henry English.