NATO Membership for Ukraine Is a Necessary Condition of an Enduring Peace Deal
Read my latest article in Foreign Affairs.
At a CNN town hall in May 2023, Donald Trump promised that if elected, he would end the war in Ukraine in a single day. That bullish pledge has now become a familiar refrain, with the president-elect insisting that he uniquely has the nous to bring Russia and Ukraine to the table and force a truce. His imminent return to the White House has stirred a great deal of speculation on both sides of the Atlantic about the prospects for a peace deal. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, Kyiv and its backers have been wary of signaling an interest in negotiations, fearful that doing so would be seen as weakness. Trump’s reelection now gives Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky greater freedom to engage in talks: he can argue that he has no choice. In late November, in an interview with Sky News, he suggested that he was indeed ready to negotiate.
Conditions on the ground, however, are not conducive to a deal. Wars usually end in two ways: one side wins, or there is a stalemate. In Ukraine, neither side seems near victory, but the war has not yet ground to a standstill. Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks he is winning. If Trump threatens to cut aid to Ukraine, Putin will be even more emboldened to keep fighting, not end his invasion; advancing armies rarely stop fighting when their opponent is about to become weaker. If Putin senses that Trump and his new team are trying to appease the Kremlin, he will become more aggressive, not less.
Read the rest here.
(I wish I could read the rest of your article, but I have not subscribed to foreign affairs and they blocked any further reading.)
What Trump will or won't do, from what I see, would be strictly to benefit himself and his own image. I know Ukrainians are hopeful, and Zelenskyy would know better than anyone how to play this situation. Certainly NOTHING should be negotiated between Putin and Trump without Ukraine at the table.
Given that press briefing from the Russian Foreign Ministry (Maria Zakharova) a couple of days ago, I don't see Putin in any way softening his demands- basically complete capitulation by Ukraine. And Trump, after being in Europe at Notre Dame, seems not to want even an invitation to NATO for Ukraine. An invitation which Ukraine certainly deserves, and for many reasons. I have trouble envisioning Trump standing up to Putin, given his historical praise for Russia and his disrespectful past remarks about Ukraine.
Perhaps the standing ovation by the crowd at Notre Dame for Zelenskyy, will change Trump's mind just a bit- or will that just make him jealous, that his own reception was tepid? One thing for sure - Trump will want to be on the winning side of this conflict. I'm hoping that means Ukraine's side!
I did read the whole article. (Twice ) I do not see either Putin or Trump being trustworthy negotiators on the matter of Ukraine. Trump’s purposeful backsliding in Afghanistan was no honorable “deal” and I would expect more of the same in his potential backstabbing of the Ukrainian people. Add to that aspect, Trump adores dictators like Putin and abhors democracy
—troubled waters and those wading in need to beware of the riptide.