One Year of War in Ukraine: My Take
As the first anniversary of Putin's invasion of Ukraine approaches on February 24, 2023, I wrote a series of articles this last month. — 2 here and 2 elsewhere — on (1) Ukraine's successes in the war (2) Putin's problems (3) what the US and West did right to help Ukraine, and (4) what more the West needs to do in 2023. They are best read in sequence. A final piece is coming here later this week on “Planning for Peace.” Stay tuned. As always, comments are much appreciated!
1. 2022 Was the Year of Victory for Ukraine and Defeat for Russia
2. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of Putinism?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/24/putin-ukraine-war-legitimacy-support/
3. Biden’s Impressive Success on Ukraine (So Far)
4. How to Get a Breakthrough in Ukraine: The Case Against Incrementalism
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-get-breakthrough-ukraine
One thing I'm wondering about at the moment is the next Russian offensive -- as in: will there be one?
The Russians have ground up their best units, and have run down their missile stocks considerably. What they are doing now in the Bakhmut-Soledar area is the equivalent of human wave attacks with untrained troops, or worse, Wagner ex-prisoners. Their counterattacks in the Kreminna area are combined arms, but if that is the best they can manage, they are in no shape for mobile warfare.
I doubt the ZSU is much better shape, a situation exacerbated by our failure to provide them with enough equipment of the right type in a timely manner.
I'm assuming that Gerasimov/Putin will order some sort of offensive anyway, but where are the units to be used in such an attack? We had early warning of the Russian attack on February 24, 2022. For any major offensive, we should have such a warning again, but I just don't see it yet.