You Can’t Be a China Hawk and a Russia Dove at the Same Time
What happens in Ukraine impacts what might happen in Taiwan.
As President-elect Trump begins to announce nominations for his national security team, press reports describe many of them as “China hawks.” Senator Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, has long been known as a hawk on China. Trump’s pick for National Security Adviser, Michael Waltz, believes that “the Chinese Communist Party has entered into a Cold War with the United States and is explicit in its aim to replace the liberal, Western-led world order that has been in place since World War II.” Trump’s pick for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, has a reputation for tough talk on China. And even Trump’s choice for the next Secretary of Treasury, Scott Bessett, has pledged to aggressively deploy tariffs to confront China’s economic practices. Other self-described China hawks in Trump’s orbit, including Robert Lighthizer, Peter Navarro, and Elbridge Colby, await future assignments in the second Trump administration.
At the same time, many of those close to President-elect Trump have articulated very dovish positions regarding Russia. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, for instance, has called for an end to U.S. aid to Ukraine. Many close to Trump also have expressed the view that Europe should assume more responsibility for containing Russia so that the United States can redirect its resources to counter China. And, of course, President-elect Trump himself has never publicly said an unkind word about Putin. Some have even quietly revived the notion that the Trump administration should seek to drive a wedge between Russia and China to help us balance against the China threat, much like Nixon’s diplomatic outreach to China during the Cold War to counter the Soviet Union.
These two positions—tough on China and soft on Russia—are incompatible. What happens in Europe today impacts what happens in Asia tomorrow. The sooner Trump’s new national security team understands this relationship, the faster it can devise a comprehensive strategy for defending American interests in Asia, Europe, and the world.
Russia’s victory in Ukraine will embolden Xi Jinping to attack or blockade Taiwan. If Trump helps Putin achieve all he wants in a peace deal—firm control over the four Ukrainian regions he annexed on paper in 2022 territory and blocked NATO membership for Ukraine—Xi will perceive the new American president as weak and question whether the Trump administration will do anything to defend Taiwan should Xi invade.
After all, the level of risk and commitment for the United States in Ukraine is minimal compared to a potential war over Taiwan. Today, the United States provides military and economic assistance to Ukraine, not American soldiers. If Xi were to invade Taiwan, President Trump would have to deploy American troops into a war with the world’s second most powerful country. While the United States has more advanced equipment and better-trained soldiers, the Chinese Navy has a geographical advantage, as well as more battle force ships and more troops. This war could drag on for a long time and have real economic consequences for the United States and the world. If Trump is unwilling to push Putin back in Ukraine, where the risks are low, why should Xi believe that Trump will be ready to fight against China over Taiwan?
Moreover, Ukraine is a sovereign, independent country. Taiwan is not. If Trump is willing to give up a sovereign nation to Putin, why would Xi believe that he will go to war to save an island that the United States and the rest of the world do not formally recognize as sovereign? Looking weak in Europe will translate to looking weak in Asia.
Putin is also Xi’s closest partner today. A victory for Putin in Ukraine will make the China-Russia entente look more powerful, further fueling the image of a declining America and NATO. Putin’s win in Ukraine then, especially if facilitated by appeasement from Trump and other Western leaders, will compel other countries, especially in the developing world, to lean more toward the rising China and away from the “declining” United States. China hawks should want Xi’s closest ally in the world to lose, not win.
More generally, the triumph of dictatorship over democracy in Ukraine would weaken democracy's ideological appeal globally. To date, President-elect Trump has demonstrated little interest in promoting democracy abroad. But if he and the China hawks in his administration get serious about containing China, they eventually have to act in alignment with our democratic values. Our values, embraced by most people in the world, are one of our greatest advantages in the global competition with autocratic China today.
But don’t believe me. Listen instead to former President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen. At the security forum last week in Halifax, Canada, Tsai advised American policymakers to “do whatever they can to help the Ukrainians.” As Tsai explained, "A Ukrainian victory will serve as the most effective deterrent to future aggression.” She said the same to me and our delegation when we visited Taiwan in the summer of 2022, just months after Putin invaded Ukraine. Every senior Taiwanese official echoed the same idea, stating how a win for Ukraine would be a win for Taiwan, while a win for Putin’s Russia would be a win for Xi’s People’s Republic of China. (For more on that visit, read here)
Trump’s China hawks want to deter Xi from invading Taiwan. I do, too. (Look out for more of my essays here on enhancing deterrence in Asia in the coming months). One part of that strategy is to deny Xi’s comrade in Moscow a victory in Ukraine. President Tsai and the Taiwanese people understand how these fronts are intertwined. I hope the new Trump national security team eventually will, too.
"What happens in Europe today impacts what happens in Asia tomorrow."
Agreed. The converse is also true. We live more than ever in an inter-connected world. Our shabby exit from Afghanistan no doubt gave some encouragement to Putin when he was considering whether to pull the trigger on his invasion of Ukraine. Hopefully, Mr. Trump will remember the heavy criticism his predecessor received over that abrupt exit that led to a renewed takeover of the Afghans by the Taliban. Handing over Ukraine to Putin would subject him to ten times more criticism because of Ukraine's far greater strategic importance in Europe. As mentioned in the piece, such a surrender would also subject us to further, larger dangers such as encouraging a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. It would also encourage Putin and his allies, the mullahs in Iran and the dictator in North Korea, to stir up more trouble and threats wherever they see an opportunity to undermine Western interests and values.
Unfortunately, it seems a sure bet that the next administration would not protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, so let's hope the deterrence is strong.