2022 - A Year Of Global Democratic Renewal

In Iran, Asia, Europe, and the Americas, small d democrats scored big victories this year

Democracy around the world has been in decline for a decade and a half. Three big factors have driven this retreat: the rise of illiberal populist movements in the oldest democracies, including most dangerously in the United States, new democracies that failed to consolidate, and the growing power of autocratic China and Russia.

2022, however, brought some hope about the reversal of these global anti-democratic trends. All three kinds of challenges to democracy have suffered setbacks.

First, populists in more established democracies did not advance, and their most anti-democratic ideas failed to gain traction. Most importantly for global democracy, the United States mid-term elections in November 2022 were mostly free, fair, and peaceful. Voter intimidation, disingenuous allegations of fraud, and calls for violent resistance to election results all occurred, but gained few followers and mobilized little anti-democratic action. This is a giant victory for democracy in the United States. And since the United States is the most powerful democracy, this positive outcome is a victory for all small d democrats around the world. Moreover, candidates backed by Mr. Trump running on “stop the steal” platforms fared poorly. It turns out that most Americans still prefer democracy to other forms of selecting their leaders.

More generally, the poor showing of the Republican Party relative to expectations gave some GOP leaders renewed courage to distance themselves from Mr Trump – arguably the biggest threat to American democracy. Let’s hope that Mr. Trump pivoting to even more anti-democratic behavior, such as dining with Hitler supporters and calling for the suspension of the U.S. Constitution, is the start of his exit from the U.S. political stage.

Populists also faltered or moderated their views in other democracies. President Jair Bolsonaro – the “Trump of the tropics” – lost his reelection bid in Brazil. Although he flirted with the idea of holding onto power by undemocratic means, Bolsonaro eventually recognized the voting results and handed over power peacefully. This is another giant win for global democracy. In September, illiberal populists won significant electoral gains in the Italian election, and the new government is now headed by Giorgia Meloni, whose party, Brothers of Italy, has historical ties to neo-fascism. But soon after becoming the prime minister, Meloni signaled clearly that she holds little in common with Mussolini, and notably reaffirmed Italy’s support for Ukraine.

Unfortunately, the global populist movement has not petered out completely. Nationalist populists won in Sweden this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is consolidating power in India, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recovered his grip on control in Turkey. But on balance, the populists lost more momentum than they gained. And a democratic breakdown in two of the largest democracies in the world, the United States and Brazil, did not occur.

Second, in 2022, powerful autocracies also experienced challengers from within. In Iran, mass protests and popular uprisings have erupted, especially on university campuses, in response to the brutal killing of Mahsa Amini by the regime’s religious morality police. Brave women used a single act of non-violent civil resistance – taking off their veils – to energize a peaceful national movement against the theocratic regime. And they already have achieved a partial victory; in December, the Iranian dictatorship announced plans to dissolve the morality police. What that will practically entail, remains to be seen. This struggle against autocracy is not over; watch this space in 2023.

In 2022, students also led peaceful protests in the People’s Republic of China. Their initial grievances centered on the Chinese Communist Party’s draconian COVID lockdowns, a sentiment that attracted workers and new generations of activists to their cause. On some college campuses, the demands morphed into more overt challenges to dictatorship. And similar to Iran, they achieved results. In December, the Chinese government lifted almost all COVID restrictions and announced the suspension of quarantine measures upon entry into the country, starting January 8. That’s another victory for popular mobilization.

Third, amidst a full-scale invasion and horrific warfare, Ukraine’s democracy did not collapse. Without question, the biggest fight for democracy this year tragically has been a literal fight, unfolding on the battlefield, after autocratic Russia invaded democratic Ukraine. In this fight for freedom, tens of thousands – maybe hundreds of thousands – of lives have been lost. After ten months of fighting, however, democratic Ukraine is winning. Putin has not achieved any of his initial military objectives. He did not unite Ukrainians and Russians into one Slavic nation. He failed to “de-Nazify” or “de-militarize” Ukraine. He lost the Battle of Kyiv, the Battle of Kharkiv, and then was pushed out of Kherson after annexing it a month earlier. Rather than stopping NATO expansion, his invasion compelled Finland and Sweden to join the Organization. And no matter how this war ends, Putin’s invasion firmly has consolidated Ukrainian democracy and its orientation towards Europe firmer than ever before. This outcome is already certain and irreversible. That’s another win for democracy.

In the long run, Putin’s disastrous war in Ukraine will also weaken his dictatorship at home. Popular support for the war is rapidly declining, economic elites quietly detest the financially disastrous war, and even some voices close to the regime are beginning to question the wisdom of Putin’s actions. And the courage of a Russian opposition leader, Ilya Yashin, sentenced to 8.5 years in prison for simply speaking the truth about Putin’s crimes in Bucha, should give pause to those who claim that all Russians support dictatorship and imperialism. Just like Leonid Brezhnev’s overreach in Afghanistan helped to spark the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union, Putin’s overreach in Ukraine will help to spark the beginning of the end of Putinism in Russia.

One good year does not make a trend. But after fifteen years of democratic decline around the globe, maybe 2022 will be remembered as the beginning of a new era of democratic renewal. The courage of poll workers in Arizona, voters in Brazil, college students in Iran and China, Yashin in Russia, Ukrainian warriors in Kherson, and Ukrainians throughout the entire country should give everyone hope for better, more democratic times to come.

Hoping that 2023 will be an even better year for democracy around the world. Happy New Year!