Thanks for the uplifting read, though I feel the forces of democracy, (and freedom and decency for that matter) have made substantial rather 'giant' progress. With respect to the US I won't think the damage Trump has committed will be undone till we get 2-3 consecutive Republican Presidential candidates who lose and accept the results without calling the results fraudulent. But still it was a heartening read with plenty of facts and truth supporting it.
What can the rest of NATO do about Erdogan? He seems to be playing both sides, helping in some ways in Ukraine but then cracking down on opposition at home and getting more aggressive in Syria.
The decline of democracy paired with the ascent of authoritarianism is a worldwide phenomenon, suggesting overriding global causes. As an economic determinist, I perceive two such global events driving these trends: 1) the revolutionary transformation of the global economy by electronic technology on a scale exceeding that of the two previous Industrial Revolutions 2) Global climate change.
The relevant Lessons of History learned from both Industrial Revolutions reveal that when new, more efficient technology and energy resources combine they displace the previous dominant technology/energy combinations and with them, the workers detached from the old production paradigm and forced to move to the new (as in the 19th century when industry replaced farming/ranching as the dominant occupation of the labor force).
The adjustment to the new production paradigm is turbulent, producing social unrest, mass migrations of workers displaced from the old to the new, violence, and war between the rising and waning powers (e.g. Napoleonic and U.S. Civil Wars during the first Industrial Revolution between waning agricultural and rising industrial powers), or wars between rising powers competing for dominance (as between Axis and Allied powers in WW I and II accompanying the second Industrial Revolution). This phenomenon raises concerns about future relations with China -- subject for another discussion.
These transformations unfold in three phases: 1) The Initial phase of euphoria, soaring financial markets, and rising inequality associated with rapid economic growth 2) Over-expansion in Phase 1 leads to intense economic contraction, crashing financial markets, social unrest, the rise of either reactionary or revolutionary authoritarianism and war followed by 3) Mature, steady and stable economic growth: surging financial markets and political stability. We are currently traversing Phase 2.
The political corollary of these transformations is the rise of dictators seen as guarantors of economic/personal security; stability; progress; and preservation of culture, ideals, and way of life in a shifting, turbulent world seen as threatened by migration of technologically and politically displaced "others."
Presently a perfect storm is brewing as resentment grows within advanced nations of technologically and politically displaced migrants from developing nations, compounded by the surge of migrating populations displaced by climate change. Such displacement occurs when changes in climate render land uninhabitable (as by rising sea levels and temperature, storms, and fires) and/or unproductive, and given to lawlessness and political corruption induced by poverty.
While the 2022 U.S. elections provided some basis for optimism about the survival of democracy, history tells us the assault on democracy by reactionary political forces is far from over. The assault will continue until the aforementioned conditions prompting mass migrations from the Global South to North remain unresolved. Whether democracy will survive the process remains an open question. For further discussion about the danger of political violence see "FREEDOM TO CHOOSE -- PART 1" at https://davidlsmith.substack.com/p/freedom-to-choose
"The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt." John Philpot Curran
The USA is a constitutional republic that is farther away from "democracy" than most other democracies.
As the ancient Greeks discovered, direct democracy, because human nature is what it is, are doomed to fail and revert to totalitarianism of one form or another. Most parliamentary democracies share many of the defects of direct democracies in that one faction or party can control all the levers of power if they win a majority of seats. Most will also fail when that centralized power is abused, although they will last longer than direct democracy.
Republics with democratically elected executives and legislators and also an independent judiciary, with power divided and dispersed so that no one party or faction can electorally gain total control, have the best chance at lasting longer. Everyone wants to rule the world and republics so structured are best equipped to fend off human nature when it inevitably surfaces. They also have the capability of providing the citizens with the most freedom and prosperity, although, that is not guaranteed.
The Ukrainians are currently under great stress with a common enemy that unites them. It will be interesting to see how their self-governance evolves once the Russians are defeated and expelled.
Would love to know your assessment of the (apparent) protest movement in Afghanistan following Taliban crackdown on education of women. There seem to be glimpses of daring speech by women and solidary from male students and academics, but this is based on tweets and I don't know how to validate.
You sure put up quite the smokescreen with your analysis of the Ukraine conflict in those two unsupported paragraphs.
Let's at least go over a little history here because Feb 24 was not the beginning of all this.
As has been stated, the West "won" the Cold War. Yes. After the Soviet Union destroyed 78% of the cream of Nazi forces at the cost of 24 million to 28 million people of the Soviet Union and the destruction of two-thirds of the Soviet Union's industrial capacity and after Truman turned them into enemies as he was a know hater of the Soviet Union and after aiding Germany and Japan but not the Soviet Union and after all the isolation the West had imposed on the Soviet Union and all the ruin to the Soviet economy due to military costs due to the West's confrontation with the Soviet Union ... the Soviet Union collapsed.
Yeltsin and friends then divided the Soviet Union up leaving millions of ethnic Russians in a hostile Ukraine. Remember Ukrainians collaborated with the Nazis because they hated Russians and to this very day, parades are held for Stepan Bandera and streets are named after him. Stepan Bandera was a Nazi collaborator and supported the ethnic cleansing of poles and Jews resulting in 900,000 deaths including women and children.
There is a strong Nazi influence in Ukraine. I posted just a few videos on Michael McFaul's Twitter posts yesterday and the day before which is why he probably banned me but you can go check them out yourself. Just look for posts around Dec. 28 and 29. Look for my posts from Global Happiness Effort.
There are many videos supporting the fact that there is a strong Nazi influence in Ukraine. You can also read the rare Western admissions of this problem in articles pre-dating Feb 24 after which Western media simply became Zelensky's bullhorn.
Both articles show that oligarchs and Kiev used Nazi far-right private militias to attack Russian Ukranians, or what the West calls separatists, in the Donbas and other places since the coup of 2014.
It is in this tinderbox that Putin has to decide how to support Russians Ukranians who are being ethnicity cleansed. Schools are forbidden to teach in Russian and the special status of the Russian language is rescinded.
Putin sends in military aid to Ukraine to stop this ethnic cleansing and then in good faith negotiates with France, Germany and Kiev the Minsk Agreements. It was designed to give a certain autonomy to areas of the Donbas and protection from Kiev's ethnic cleansing.
The Minsk agreements were not negotiated in good faith by Kiev nor Germany. Petro Poroshenko openly admitted after Feb 24 that the Minsk Agreements were a ruse to buy time and allow Ukraine to arm itself. Angela Merkel recently said the same thing. Putin had been stabbed in the back by Kiev and the West. Par for the course though.
The US then lied to Ukraine, as Michael McFaul has admitted, that they would be admitted into NATO. This was a strong inducement if not an impossible thing for Zelensky to resist. Ukraine joining the hostile and ever advancing NATO which was an obvious threat to Russia's security and a known red line clearly stated years ago by Putin.
When it is clear that Zelensky will try to join NATO that's when Putin engages in this military operation to protect Russian Ukranians and Russian security just like the US almost initiated nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis under similar circumstances and which still has an embargo after 60 years.
Yes. He has limited success in eliminating Nazis in Ukraine or as it can also be stated, the US and NATO have successfully defended Nazis in Ukraine much like they assisted Germany after WWII while trying to vanquish the Soviet Union who had saved the world, mostly on their own, from the Third Reich.
The Warsaw Pact dissolved after the Cold War but NATO persisted even during the Yeltsin decade. Why? Because the West was not finished trying to vanquish the Soviet Union. They negotiated in bad faith. "Not one inch East" after East Germany was allowed to reunite with West Germany. Angela Merkel's treachery will not be forgotten nor the West.
You are incorrect in thinking that there is any kind of victory for the West here. The West has now alienated Putin by this treachery and along with China are creating a Multipolar world joined by the BRICS, Iran and others. The US Dollar is being phased out. A SWIFT alternative is being used. China is working on being self reliant on technology and other areas. That is the good news from all this. The world has a new opportunity to break out of the yoke of Western imperialism and colonialism that the West never admits to and sweeps under the rug. Good riddance to US hegemony. A breath of fresh air for those outside the West.
In the meantime, those of us suffering under Democratic Capitalism have to figure out how to get rid of our Elite overlords.
Regarding the end of Zero-COVID in China, it is bizarre how the West has reacted to it. Zero-COVID is the most successful fight against COVID. The West tried and failed to do anything like this. Remember "crush the curve"? Well China did just that and without depending on an unreliable West for vaccines. It was a major victory for China and its sovereignty.
Now all Western media and government are ghoulishly looking for massive deaths in China which seem to not be happening. China was never gholish when the West was failing. So bizarre.
Regarding Iran, in 1953 it was a secular democracy which was brought down by the British and the US for oil. A dictator was installed which eventually led to the 1979 uprising which is what we now complain about.
All the suffering that has occurred in Iran since 1953 and even before that is laid at the feet of the UK and the US but who cares about history. Certainly not our Elites.
"More generally, the poor showing of the Republican Party relative to expectations gave some GOP leaders renewed courage to distance themselves from Mr Trump"
Yes. That is true but Trump, for all the turmoil he caused finally caused the Republican party to fracture into old guard and populist. The old guard wants endless wars while the populists want domestic reforms.
The Democratic party is still under the complete control of the old guard war mongers. Bernie Sanders had been sidelined twice by the Democratic party and he has now become part of the old guard. Even the squad is part of the old guard now.
It's a long struggle to remove the old guard elites. We need but one good leader to get rid of them.
"First, populists in more established democracies did not advance, and their most anti-democratic ideas failed to gain traction."? Most of the victories have been close calls. Even bizarre Trump candidates got above 40% of the vote and some came close to winning or won. Lula just managed to pull off a victory. You paint a rosy picture but the reality is that there is a lot of traction and there is deep division.
This is being brought on us by our elites who continue to promote division and provoke endless wars for US hegemony.
Great points. What used to be extreme has now become mainstream
Thanks for the uplifting read, though I feel the forces of democracy, (and freedom and decency for that matter) have made substantial rather 'giant' progress. With respect to the US I won't think the damage Trump has committed will be undone till we get 2-3 consecutive Republican Presidential candidates who lose and accept the results without calling the results fraudulent. But still it was a heartening read with plenty of facts and truth supporting it.
What can the rest of NATO do about Erdogan? He seems to be playing both sides, helping in some ways in Ukraine but then cracking down on opposition at home and getting more aggressive in Syria.
The decline of democracy paired with the ascent of authoritarianism is a worldwide phenomenon, suggesting overriding global causes. As an economic determinist, I perceive two such global events driving these trends: 1) the revolutionary transformation of the global economy by electronic technology on a scale exceeding that of the two previous Industrial Revolutions 2) Global climate change.
The relevant Lessons of History learned from both Industrial Revolutions reveal that when new, more efficient technology and energy resources combine they displace the previous dominant technology/energy combinations and with them, the workers detached from the old production paradigm and forced to move to the new (as in the 19th century when industry replaced farming/ranching as the dominant occupation of the labor force).
The adjustment to the new production paradigm is turbulent, producing social unrest, mass migrations of workers displaced from the old to the new, violence, and war between the rising and waning powers (e.g. Napoleonic and U.S. Civil Wars during the first Industrial Revolution between waning agricultural and rising industrial powers), or wars between rising powers competing for dominance (as between Axis and Allied powers in WW I and II accompanying the second Industrial Revolution). This phenomenon raises concerns about future relations with China -- subject for another discussion.
These transformations unfold in three phases: 1) The Initial phase of euphoria, soaring financial markets, and rising inequality associated with rapid economic growth 2) Over-expansion in Phase 1 leads to intense economic contraction, crashing financial markets, social unrest, the rise of either reactionary or revolutionary authoritarianism and war followed by 3) Mature, steady and stable economic growth: surging financial markets and political stability. We are currently traversing Phase 2.
The political corollary of these transformations is the rise of dictators seen as guarantors of economic/personal security; stability; progress; and preservation of culture, ideals, and way of life in a shifting, turbulent world seen as threatened by migration of technologically and politically displaced "others."
Presently a perfect storm is brewing as resentment grows within advanced nations of technologically and politically displaced migrants from developing nations, compounded by the surge of migrating populations displaced by climate change. Such displacement occurs when changes in climate render land uninhabitable (as by rising sea levels and temperature, storms, and fires) and/or unproductive, and given to lawlessness and political corruption induced by poverty.
While the 2022 U.S. elections provided some basis for optimism about the survival of democracy, history tells us the assault on democracy by reactionary political forces is far from over. The assault will continue until the aforementioned conditions prompting mass migrations from the Global South to North remain unresolved. Whether democracy will survive the process remains an open question. For further discussion about the danger of political violence see "FREEDOM TO CHOOSE -- PART 1" at https://davidlsmith.substack.com/p/freedom-to-choose
"The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt." John Philpot Curran
The USA is a constitutional republic that is farther away from "democracy" than most other democracies.
As the ancient Greeks discovered, direct democracy, because human nature is what it is, are doomed to fail and revert to totalitarianism of one form or another. Most parliamentary democracies share many of the defects of direct democracies in that one faction or party can control all the levers of power if they win a majority of seats. Most will also fail when that centralized power is abused, although they will last longer than direct democracy.
Republics with democratically elected executives and legislators and also an independent judiciary, with power divided and dispersed so that no one party or faction can electorally gain total control, have the best chance at lasting longer. Everyone wants to rule the world and republics so structured are best equipped to fend off human nature when it inevitably surfaces. They also have the capability of providing the citizens with the most freedom and prosperity, although, that is not guaranteed.
The Ukrainians are currently under great stress with a common enemy that unites them. It will be interesting to see how their self-governance evolves once the Russians are defeated and expelled.
Democracy and freedom always wins over any dictatorship and evil.
Would love to know your assessment of the (apparent) protest movement in Afghanistan following Taliban crackdown on education of women. There seem to be glimpses of daring speech by women and solidary from male students and academics, but this is based on tweets and I don't know how to validate.
Thank You Mr McFaul 🌺
Nice piece!
This just in a day before New Year's:
Venezuela votes out US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido
Another stooge bites the dust. Happy 2023 Venezuela!
https://www.rt.com/news/569220-venezuela-vote-juan-guaido/
You sure put up quite the smokescreen with your analysis of the Ukraine conflict in those two unsupported paragraphs.
Let's at least go over a little history here because Feb 24 was not the beginning of all this.
As has been stated, the West "won" the Cold War. Yes. After the Soviet Union destroyed 78% of the cream of Nazi forces at the cost of 24 million to 28 million people of the Soviet Union and the destruction of two-thirds of the Soviet Union's industrial capacity and after Truman turned them into enemies as he was a know hater of the Soviet Union and after aiding Germany and Japan but not the Soviet Union and after all the isolation the West had imposed on the Soviet Union and all the ruin to the Soviet economy due to military costs due to the West's confrontation with the Soviet Union ... the Soviet Union collapsed.
Yeltsin and friends then divided the Soviet Union up leaving millions of ethnic Russians in a hostile Ukraine. Remember Ukrainians collaborated with the Nazis because they hated Russians and to this very day, parades are held for Stepan Bandera and streets are named after him. Stepan Bandera was a Nazi collaborator and supported the ethnic cleansing of poles and Jews resulting in 900,000 deaths including women and children.
There is a strong Nazi influence in Ukraine. I posted just a few videos on Michael McFaul's Twitter posts yesterday and the day before which is why he probably banned me but you can go check them out yourself. Just look for posts around Dec. 28 and 29. Look for my posts from Global Happiness Effort.
There are many videos supporting the fact that there is a strong Nazi influence in Ukraine. You can also read the rare Western admissions of this problem in articles pre-dating Feb 24 after which Western media simply became Zelensky's bullhorn.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY
https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/azov-battalion
Both articles show that oligarchs and Kiev used Nazi far-right private militias to attack Russian Ukranians, or what the West calls separatists, in the Donbas and other places since the coup of 2014.
It is in this tinderbox that Putin has to decide how to support Russians Ukranians who are being ethnicity cleansed. Schools are forbidden to teach in Russian and the special status of the Russian language is rescinded.
Putin sends in military aid to Ukraine to stop this ethnic cleansing and then in good faith negotiates with France, Germany and Kiev the Minsk Agreements. It was designed to give a certain autonomy to areas of the Donbas and protection from Kiev's ethnic cleansing.
The Minsk agreements were not negotiated in good faith by Kiev nor Germany. Petro Poroshenko openly admitted after Feb 24 that the Minsk Agreements were a ruse to buy time and allow Ukraine to arm itself. Angela Merkel recently said the same thing. Putin had been stabbed in the back by Kiev and the West. Par for the course though.
The US then lied to Ukraine, as Michael McFaul has admitted, that they would be admitted into NATO. This was a strong inducement if not an impossible thing for Zelensky to resist. Ukraine joining the hostile and ever advancing NATO which was an obvious threat to Russia's security and a known red line clearly stated years ago by Putin.
When it is clear that Zelensky will try to join NATO that's when Putin engages in this military operation to protect Russian Ukranians and Russian security just like the US almost initiated nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis under similar circumstances and which still has an embargo after 60 years.
Yes. He has limited success in eliminating Nazis in Ukraine or as it can also be stated, the US and NATO have successfully defended Nazis in Ukraine much like they assisted Germany after WWII while trying to vanquish the Soviet Union who had saved the world, mostly on their own, from the Third Reich.
The Warsaw Pact dissolved after the Cold War but NATO persisted even during the Yeltsin decade. Why? Because the West was not finished trying to vanquish the Soviet Union. They negotiated in bad faith. "Not one inch East" after East Germany was allowed to reunite with West Germany. Angela Merkel's treachery will not be forgotten nor the West.
You are incorrect in thinking that there is any kind of victory for the West here. The West has now alienated Putin by this treachery and along with China are creating a Multipolar world joined by the BRICS, Iran and others. The US Dollar is being phased out. A SWIFT alternative is being used. China is working on being self reliant on technology and other areas. That is the good news from all this. The world has a new opportunity to break out of the yoke of Western imperialism and colonialism that the West never admits to and sweeps under the rug. Good riddance to US hegemony. A breath of fresh air for those outside the West.
In the meantime, those of us suffering under Democratic Capitalism have to figure out how to get rid of our Elite overlords.
Thanks, Mr. Wild. That's what I was afraid of!
Regarding the end of Zero-COVID in China, it is bizarre how the West has reacted to it. Zero-COVID is the most successful fight against COVID. The West tried and failed to do anything like this. Remember "crush the curve"? Well China did just that and without depending on an unreliable West for vaccines. It was a major victory for China and its sovereignty.
Now all Western media and government are ghoulishly looking for massive deaths in China which seem to not be happening. China was never gholish when the West was failing. So bizarre.
Regarding Iran, in 1953 it was a secular democracy which was brought down by the British and the US for oil. A dictator was installed which eventually led to the 1979 uprising which is what we now complain about.
All the suffering that has occurred in Iran since 1953 and even before that is laid at the feet of the UK and the US but who cares about history. Certainly not our Elites.
"More generally, the poor showing of the Republican Party relative to expectations gave some GOP leaders renewed courage to distance themselves from Mr Trump"
Yes. That is true but Trump, for all the turmoil he caused finally caused the Republican party to fracture into old guard and populist. The old guard wants endless wars while the populists want domestic reforms.
The Democratic party is still under the complete control of the old guard war mongers. Bernie Sanders had been sidelined twice by the Democratic party and he has now become part of the old guard. Even the squad is part of the old guard now.
It's a long struggle to remove the old guard elites. We need but one good leader to get rid of them.
"First, populists in more established democracies did not advance, and their most anti-democratic ideas failed to gain traction."? Most of the victories have been close calls. Even bizarre Trump candidates got above 40% of the vote and some came close to winning or won. Lula just managed to pull off a victory. You paint a rosy picture but the reality is that there is a lot of traction and there is deep division.
This is being brought on us by our elites who continue to promote division and provoke endless wars for US hegemony.