In the spirit of transparency, I updated this piece just now based on useful feedback from the first draft. As I said in my opening post here, this is a space for "first drafts" for me. If that concerns you, you can read my many multiple final drafts other places, including at Wapo today, Im not here on this platform to play gotcha games. Im here to learn and get smarter.
Dead right Dr McFaul. Putin made no bones about the fact he meant to eliminate Ukraine as an entity. He’s lost and will never achieve this. If he couldn’t do this in February with an intact army he’s got no chance of doing it with what he hopes to raise now. Ukraine is militarily stronger then it was in Feb and won’t be caught by surprise next time if he tries another offensive. In fact I suspect the Ukrainians would actually like him to launch one and accelerate the attrition of the Russian army.
The question is whether Ukraine will succeed in something even bigger -the turfing out of Russian occupiers to the pre-February borders and perhaps even out of Crimea. I think that is quite possible, and will be cheering on the Ukrainians for as long as it takes. But I take comfort that at worst Putin has lost and lost big in the utterly wrong war he launched and that he will die with the evidence of this undeniable by anyone with half a brain.
Are there data on the brain drain and how many of these people left? And the actual economic effects? It feels hard to gauge considering the size of the country and the complicated dynamics at play in the Russian economy. Thanks.
Excellent synthesis of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. As you have mentioned in previous publications democracies should aid Ukrainians with whatever they need to regain their territory in 2023.
I agree with your opinions concerning the vital need to support Ukraine’s struggle for survival. I absolutely disagree with your proposal to penalize all Russian citizens who travel outside Russia now. Tens of thousands of them have left their homes and jobs and families, even, to escape the dictatorship and/or the military draft. Your proposal not only punishes the wrong people just because you have access to them, it reinforces Putin’s propaganda about Russia being surrounded by russophobe enemies. How do I know this? My wife and I are among the exodus. We left with four suitcases. Picture that.
In the spirit of transparency, I updated this piece just now based on useful feedback from the first draft. As I said in my opening post here, this is a space for "first drafts" for me. If that concerns you, you can read my many multiple final drafts other places, including at Wapo today, Im not here on this platform to play gotcha games. Im here to learn and get smarter.
Ive seen some estimates. Ill try to track them down and post.
Understood. Did you read the Foreign Affairs piece? I do say in there we should help those who left tp avoid draft or those who left to oppose regime.
Dead right Dr McFaul. Putin made no bones about the fact he meant to eliminate Ukraine as an entity. He’s lost and will never achieve this. If he couldn’t do this in February with an intact army he’s got no chance of doing it with what he hopes to raise now. Ukraine is militarily stronger then it was in Feb and won’t be caught by surprise next time if he tries another offensive. In fact I suspect the Ukrainians would actually like him to launch one and accelerate the attrition of the Russian army.
The question is whether Ukraine will succeed in something even bigger -the turfing out of Russian occupiers to the pre-February borders and perhaps even out of Crimea. I think that is quite possible, and will be cheering on the Ukrainians for as long as it takes. But I take comfort that at worst Putin has lost and lost big in the utterly wrong war he launched and that he will die with the evidence of this undeniable by anyone with half a brain.
Are there data on the brain drain and how many of these people left? And the actual economic effects? It feels hard to gauge considering the size of the country and the complicated dynamics at play in the Russian economy. Thanks.
Excellent synthesis of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. As you have mentioned in previous publications democracies should aid Ukrainians with whatever they need to regain their territory in 2023.
I agree with your opinions concerning the vital need to support Ukraine’s struggle for survival. I absolutely disagree with your proposal to penalize all Russian citizens who travel outside Russia now. Tens of thousands of them have left their homes and jobs and families, even, to escape the dictatorship and/or the military draft. Your proposal not only punishes the wrong people just because you have access to them, it reinforces Putin’s propaganda about Russia being surrounded by russophobe enemies. How do I know this? My wife and I are among the exodus. We left with four suitcases. Picture that.