A Win-Win-Win for Speaker Johnson, Ukraine, and Navalny Supporters

Speaker Johnson has the rare opportunity to make history next week; he should seize the day.

 At the Munich Security Conference (MSC) last week, I met with Ukraine’s senior government officials, soldiers and wounded veterans, Members of Parliament, and civil society activists. Their message was clear and dire. They described their fight against Putin’s invading and occupying army as one against evil.  If the United States doesn’t send more ammunition and weapons to Ukraine, they warned, Ukrainian soldiers will die in larger numbers. If the U.S. doesn’t send new air defense interceptors to Ukraine, more Ukrainian civilians will die in larger numbers. Some of Ukraine’s senior leaders even expressed real concern about the possibility of Russian counteroffensive breakthroughs this spring if new aid doesn’t come soon. Major cities like Kharkiv and Odesa could be in danger of siege or capture.

At the Munich Security Conference, I also met with Yulia Navalnaya the night before Putin killed her husband, Alexey Navalny, and briefly right after that horrific assassination. Her message was clear too. In an unplanned address at the conference, Yulia called on the global community, encouraging “everyone in this room and people around the world to come together to defeat this evil, defeat this horrible regime that is now in Russia.”  Yulia, her daughter, Dasha, and all Navalny supporters frame their fight as one against evil too.

The Ukrainian soldiers will continue to fight against Putin’s invading army with or without our weapons and ammunition. They know that they are on the right side in this battle between good and evil. Without our military aid, however, more Ukrainians will die. Navalnaya and Russians who share her values will continue to fight Putin and his totalitarian dictatorship with or without our support. They know that they are on the right side in this battle between good and evil. Without our support, however, their struggle will be longer.

We, Americans, and the rest of the free world should do more to help this right side of history in this fight between good and evil.

Sometimes, for outsiders like me and maybe many other Americans as well, distant struggles between good and evil feel hopeless, endless, and even abstract. Knowing what one can do from afar is hard. But at this moment, there are two very concrete actions that the United States can take to help those fighting Putin – new military aid to Ukrainian soldiers and new economic resources for Ukraine’s government. The U.S. Congress can do both right now. The legislation for both is already drafted.

Last week, a bill providing new assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, as well as humanitarian assistance to Palestinians passed with an overwhelming majority (70-29) in the U.S. Senate. The military aid in this bill for Ukraine is especially urgent. Delaying this aid is a gift to Putin, and this is not the time to be helping Putin. After they come back from vacation next week, the moral move by Speaker Johnson would be to let his members vote on this legislation. The last time the House Representatives voted on a related measure last fall, an overwhelming majority supported assistance to Ukraine. (It was a vote on HR 5692 on Ukraine security assistance when 311 Members voted yea, and only 117 voted nay).

New military aid to Ukraine is not just the right thing to do; it’s the strategic thing to do as I explained in this Foreign Policy  essay months ago – “The Case for Supporting Ukraine Is Crystal Clear: Note to Congress: Ukraine aid is not charity but serves critical U.S. interests.”

However, based on my conversations with House Members and those who understand the internal dynamics of the Republican Party better than I do, I have the impression that Speaker Johnson feels like he needs some cover to allow a vote on this legislation, to avoid the wrath of Trump and his most militant supporters and, ultimately, former Speaker McCarthy’s fate.

So, I have a solution: amend the aid bill passed by the Senate with another piece of legislation – H.R.4175: the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act – already voted out of committee in both the House and Senate. This bill authorizes the President to confiscate Russian sovereign assets, currently frozen in the U.S. banks, and then transfer them to a newly created Ukraine Support Fund “to compensate Ukraine for damages caused by the Russian invasion.”

Most of these frozen Russian assets are held in Europe. But if the United States moved to transfer these assets first, Europeans would follow. While the total amount has never been fully disclosed, it is estimated to be around $360 billion. That’s real money that could help finance the war effort immediately and fund reconstruction in the long term.

Not everyone in the Biden administration likes this idea. Many European governments remain even more skeptical. And that’s precisely why Johnson could look good in the eyes of his party and maybe even Trump by embracing the idea.  By adding this amendment to the bill, Speaker Johnson could claim victory in compelling the Biden administration to transfer these assets to Ukraine so that the American taxpayers don’t have to carry this burden alone. In doing so, he also could claim to be putting more pressure on the European governments to give more to Ukraine. For Speaker Johnson, these are winning talking points on the campaign trail.  

The worst outcome would be no new legislation at all, determinantal not only to those fighting Putin—Ukrainians on the battlefield, Navalnaya supporters from abroad --  but the GOP as well. Failure to pass this legislation will make Trump, Johnson, and the entire Republican Party responsible for future losses of Ukrainian soldiers, civilians, and territory between now and November.  And if Ukraine does not receive new military aid now, their losses could be devastating by our Election Day  Maybe the hardcore supporters of Trump voters don’t care. But, as polls continue to show, most Americans do care. And voters of Eastern European descent, many of whom live in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, most certainly care.  

Speaker Johnson likely has only a few more months in office and therefore has very few opportunities left to leave his mark in history. Passing this new aid bill to Ukraine, completed with seizing Putin’s assets, could be his most important achievement as Speaker. If, however, Speaker Johnson continues to block a vote on aid to Ukraine and thereby reward Putin, his place in our history books will be an embarrassing one like the isolationists and American Firsters in the 1930s who wrongly argued that giving aid to Great Britain did not serve Americans interests and Hitler’s war in Europe was not our problem. And even if the militant MAGA minority in the House pushes him out of power as a punishment for allowing that vote, isn’t that a better legacy – a legacy of being on the right side of history with Ukrainians and Yulia Navalnaya – than being compared to Charles Lindbergh?

I would prefer Johnson to simply do the right and righteous thing and allow a clean vote on the aid legislation that already passed in the Senate. But if that is too hard, adding the REPO Act to the aid bill gives Johnson the cover he needs to bring the House to the floor for a vote, and still do the right thing. It’s a win for Johnson, a win for Ukraine, and a win for Navalny supporters.