America Needs Peaceful Evolutionary Reform, Not Violent, Chaotic Revolution.

Trump is promising chaos and disruption. Harris is offering a pragmatic to-do list.

Many people I know keep saying that we all need to chill out about Donald Trump. He says things he doesn't really believe, so we are told. If elected, he will be less extreme than people fear.  And some also try to bring comfort by explaining that he’s not a very energetic or competent leader. He may aspire to do crazy things, but he doesn’t have the practical skills to accomplish them. And neither does his future team, or so we are told to believe. They just want government titles, not revolution.

Trump Supporters Hold "Stop The Steal" Rally In DC Amid Ratification Of Presidential Election on January 6, 2020. Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images

If he wins, I hope these soothsayers are right. We can return to that debate then. But right now, days before one of the biggest elections in American history, rivaled only by 2020 and 1860, it is dangerous—really dangerous—to underestimate the chaos that will ensue if Mr. Trump is reelected. Even attempting to do many of the things he has promised, even if he ultimately fails to accomplish them, will be deeply damaging to the American economy, society, and national security.

For instance, Mr. Trump has promised to deport millions of immigrants. He pledged, “Immediately upon taking office, I will launch the largest deportation in American history.” He and his Vice-Presidential running mate have repeatedly hinted that some legal immigrants who have lived here for many years might be on this list. When asked about the legal immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, J.D. Vance called them illegal and said he didn’t care what the law said about their status. Executing this campaign pledge, even attempting to do so, will have catastrophic consequences for our economy. Grocery prices will increase because there won’t be enough farmworkers to harvest crops. The cost of home care for the elderly, childcare, and health care will also increase as immigrants are essential to our care workforce.  The cost of housing will also increase as builders struggle to find skilled workers. And inflation generally will skyrocket because our current unemployment rate is so low. In addition, unleashing police officers or the military to round up these immigrants will trigger violence, resistance, and conflict on a national scale. Our society will be deeply divided. Mass demonstrations, civic resistance, and strikes will likely occur in response, which in turn might trigger pro-Trump vigilantes into action. Our country will be thrust into a chaotic mess.

Second, Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on everything will trigger giant spikes in inflation. Then, our trading partners will retaliate, hurting our companies that rely on exports. These companies, in turn, will have to lay off employees. And we are off to the races, spiraling towards a global recession. No serious economist has endorsed Trump’s comprehensive tariff plan as a good idea for our economy. 

Third, Trump has promised to purge the federal government of thousands of employees. This sounds like Stalin to me.  Such an act will produce the breakdown of our government. Basic services will not be available to the American people.  Need to talk to someone at the Veteran’s Administration about your benefits? Good luck. I hope you have some serious savings in your bank account. Need to get a passport? I hope your trip is in 2027.  (And by the way, you better hope that countries on which we impose tariffs will still allow visa travel for Americans, but don’t count on it.)

Fourth, Trump—just like dictators all over the world, present and past—has promised to lock up his critics. Echoing autocrats from Hitler to Putin, Trump has labeled those who disagree with him “the enemy from within.”  He has promised to us the “National Guard or, if necessary, the military” to deal with those who he calls “sick people, radical left lunatics.” Thankfully, our rule of law will not erode overnight. Those being threatened by politically-motivated arrests will fight. But the very process of trying to lock up his critics will spark a major political crisis in the United States. Our Congress will be entirely consumed by this fight and, therefore, do nothing else—nothing that could benefit the American people. They most certainly won't have the bandwidth to cut taxes and regulations in the ways that Trump's wealthy supporters hope. That is a pipedream.

Fifth, Trump’s pledge to cut off aid to Ukraine will also fuel more fighting and killing, not less. Such a move will not stop the war. If Ukraine has fewer weapons, Putin will be emboldened to try to annex more Ukrainian land. He most certainly will not end his invasion while his opponent is getting weaker. That’s never happened in past wars, and it won't happen in Ukraine today. And Ukrainians will continue to fight, even without our weapons. Trump will try and fail to appease Putin, making the United States look weak and feckless. Putin then will test Trump’s commitment to the NATO alliance. Given what Trump has said about letting Putin do “whatever he wants” to NATO allies, it’s only logical that Putin will be tempted to do exactly that with Trump in the White House.  And that Putin’s test—say, a limited attack on a Baltic ally— could either lead to the gradual dissolution of NATO if Trump doesn’t respond or drag us into World War III.  Both scenarios are bad for American national security.

Congress Holds Joint Session To Ratify the 2020 Presidential Election on January 6, 2021. Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images

Showing weakness in Europe, in turn, will embolden other leaders.  Xi will be tempted to test Trump’s commitment to defend Taiwan. To date, Trump has said very little to assure the people of Taiwan that he would go to war with China to defend them. Instead, Trump continues to berate Taiwanese companies for “stealing” our chip technology and vowed to use tariffs to discipline them. That’s not very reassuring. In parallel, Trump praises Xi as strong and a very smart person. That’s not very reassuring either. 

Appeasing dictators has never produced lasting peace in the past. Abandoning allies and partners invites more war, not less. No wonder so many of Trump's former national team have warned against the perils of another Trump presidency.

A second Trump presidency will usher in a new chaotic, uncertain, and violent era, both at home and abroad. Some believe that’s ok, that we need an era of disruption to radically undermine the status quo at home and abroad. I don’t. As an academic, I have studied revolutions for over four decades. Some generate better outcomes for societies that live through them. Most do not. Instead, they produce sharp economic downturns, civil wars, dictatorships, and interstate conflicts.

America needs peaceful reform, not violent revolution. Our economy, the envy of the world, needs some reforms, not massive disruption. Our democracy needs gradual improvements, not a chaotic breakdown. Maybe Trump would not do all the revolutionary, violent, disruptive things he promised on the campaign trail. But why take the risk? A vote for Vice President Harris is the much more prudent option.