Are Putin and Xi as Close as Everyone Assumes?
Putin's decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus bluntly contradicts a joint statement that he just signed with Xi. Some “friend”!
Did Putin read my last Substack article? The one in which I called the Xi-Putin summit a “big win for Xi” and a “small win for Putin”? (If you missed it, here it is: https://michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/deliverables-vs-nice-words-reflections.) Maybe Putin wasn’t so thrilled with that assessment. Because over the weekend, Putin struck back against Xi.
While Xi was in Moscow last week, the two leaders signed a joint statement which among other things declared, "All nuclear-weapon states should refrain from deploying nuclear weapons abroad and withdraw nuclear weapons deployed abroad." Putin then announced plans to do the exact opposite over the weekend, agreeing with Belarusian dictator, Mr. Lukashenko, to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Apparently, Putin’s Belarusian buddy is more important to him that his “dear friend,” Xi.
If Putin was planning this move for a while, he could have left that phrase out of the Chinese-Russian joint statement. Or he could have waited for a while so that we analysts could have all forgotten about the joint statement as we almost always do with time. There is nothing urgent, after all, about this deployment. Putin has plenty of nuclear weapons with capabilities against Ukraine already. So, the timing seems on purpose. Maybe Putin was so disappointed with the lack of gifts that Xi brought to Moscow – no weapons, no economic assistance, a pledge to buy Russian energy at discounted prices – that he wanted to get back at Xi with the only power card he holds in his hand: nuclear weapons.
Xi cannot be happy. Putin disrespected him. So too did Lukashenko, who Xi just hosted in Beijing at a very fancy summit at which Xi championed China’s “unbreakable” friendship with Belarus. And if Putin felt no obligation to adhere to the part of the resolution, does he feel the same lack of commitment to all the other sections of the joint statement? Are these just meaningless documents to him? I wonder what Xi thinks.
The Biden administration should try to find out. Now would be a perfect moment for Secretary Blinken to take his postponed trip to Beijing. The United States has an interest in fostering a wedge between Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China. Blinken should travel now.
The Biden administration also should use this moment to finally sanction more Belarusian individuals and companies for supporting Putin’ invasion of Ukraine. They should have done so long ago since Lukashenko has been aiding Putin’s barbaric war from the very beginning. But now is the perfect moment to finally do so. The more and harsher sanctions the better.
It's possible that Putin may have been snubbing Xi by going back on the words in the joint statement. It's equally possible, however, that that Putin may not have even considered his actions as being related to Xi at all. For him, treaties are just words on paper, and vague communiques like the one coming out of the Putin-Xi meeting are even less significant. It is more important for Putin to subjugate Belarus, and one way to do that is by treating it as a constituent part of Russia.
Putin used the excuse that Britain's supply of depleted uranium ammunition to Ukraine required an answer, but that idiotic propaganda point is laughable on its face.
If Putin is taking a swipe at Xi, there is one possible explanation: he's tired of all the jibes that he is now just China's vassal. It hurts even more because it is largely true. China is moving steadily to increase its economic role in Russia. China is also increasing its political and economic influence in the former Soviet states of Central Asia, something that can't be good news for Putin. During the Putin-Xi meeting, for example, China announced a May summit with Central Asian countries. There was, it seems, no invitation for Russia, which considers Central Asia its back yard. If it does turn out that Russia is on the outside looking in while China deals with its former satraps, that indeed will be galling. https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-snubs-putin-amid-summit-with-central-asia-power-play-2023-3
Glad you covered this, thanks. Putin seems to thrive on snubbing everyone, regardless of how important they are.
But now we have to ask, will Xi do anything in response and how does this actually hurt him? He'll still buy energy because it's a bargain. It will be interesting to see what happens next with this giant, intimidating axis of Russia/China.