The biggest fear I have is that a notion by some western leaders particularly the U.S. leadership that “ let Ukraine fights for itself and we have our own issues to worry about”…. If such case prevails Putin will win and Mr Xi will win and the world will go down in pieces.
The "NATO expansion" claim is a chimera. As General Petraeus has pointed out, what NATO achieved in Europe was a security blanket that permitted European post-war economies and democracies to thrive. A defensive alliance, it has never presented a threat of invasion to Russia.
What the Ukraine war shows is that Russia's fear is seeing its big Slavic neighbor choose to align itself with the democratic values and market economies of the West as opposed to staying under the domination of Russia. Given a free choice, that is not a tough decision to make, given the corruption and dictatorial institutions that now characterize Russia.
There is no way we can accept the principle that a major power may invade its neighbor simply to prevent it from making a free choice of how it wishes to be governed and organize its economy. If Russia succeeds in establishing that principle in Ukraine, it will go on to spread that principle as it sees fit in Europe and challenge the US and other free countries that wish to remain free to make their own choices. We must not let that happen.
Given the high stakes at issue in Ukraine, we should be pouring into Ukraine all of the weapons and training they need to gain a significant edge on the battlefield and push out the Russian invaders. Let's get on with it!
Please help me out here folks. What I'm looking for are those who are taking a wider view than this current conflict. Everybody is so focused on Ukraine that I fear this war is not being put in to a necessary larger context. For example...
The Ukraine war will end someday. Other conflicts will follow. And sooner or later one of these conflicts will spin out of control. If not in Ukraine, then somewhere, somehow, someday. In the nuclear era, we are playing a game of Russian roulette with each of these conflicts, and it's just not credible that the chamber will forever come up empty.
If the above is true, then a near exclusive focus on particular conflicts one by one by one as they happen may be a serious logic failure. Real victory is not just winning in Ukraine, it's saving this civilization from self destruction.
Yes, we need to win in Ukraine, and I support the approach McFaul advises and Biden is pursuing. I'm on board with all that. But that's just not enough. We need to meet the larger challenge too, which could perhaps be defined this way...
The marriage between violent men and an accelerating knowledge explosion is unsustainable.
We face a choice between the knowledge explosion and violent men.
Elegant analysis. Yes, path-dependent. Notwithstanding his prodigious, successful efforts de novo to mobilize the West, Biden's continuing feckless provision of only *just enough* advanced weaponry for Ukraine to maintain an endless, grinding, stalemate vs. Russian barbarism while their people bleed and die for *our* freedom, is hauntingly reminiscent of his pathetic (mis)management of the Afghanistan extraction. Can he raise his timid spirit from the futile equipoise on it is currently (and characteristically) sitting? That is your implicit, and my explicit question?!
But aren't most of these things up to NATO, not just Biden? All of these accomplishments will require the efforts of multiple countries. So far, that's mostly been happening, but I agree, more is needed. Today's announcement about the extreme lack of ammo is a bit scary, and it's also maybe a sad example of bad planning for the future in general.
Thanks for the link. Gotta admit, I'm not too impressed with us not anticipating the need for something as obvious as ammo. The war has been going on a full year, ya know?
Ditto, although maybe it also shows forward planning for future conflicts, which you commented on earlier. Hopefully others on here will chime in with more knowledge about defense capabilities in general.
Thanks, Ben, that's very helpful. The part I don't understand is why it's taken a year of brutal war in Ukraine to decide we need more ammo. Or have the manufacturers actually been ramping up for a while? It does feel shortsighted across the board.
Thanks for your insights. Good point about the early stages of the war and having other priorities. It will be interesting to see how this ammo shortage shapes thinking and manufacturing down the road (years/decades). Unless Russia is subdued and defeated, the world will need a lot more ammo.
1) Industrial capacity: What was NATO planning on doing if it went to war???
2) Thinking the cold war was over is now proven to be a big mistake, yes?
3) What's "modern" about running out of needed supplies?
The U.S. has a massive defense budget, the biggest in the world by far. And yet we have to worry about running out of something as basic as artillery shells. Disconcerting...
The biggest fear I have is that a notion by some western leaders particularly the U.S. leadership that “ let Ukraine fights for itself and we have our own issues to worry about”…. If such case prevails Putin will win and Mr Xi will win and the world will go down in pieces.
agree with Ben and Jiashu
The "NATO expansion" claim is a chimera. As General Petraeus has pointed out, what NATO achieved in Europe was a security blanket that permitted European post-war economies and democracies to thrive. A defensive alliance, it has never presented a threat of invasion to Russia.
What the Ukraine war shows is that Russia's fear is seeing its big Slavic neighbor choose to align itself with the democratic values and market economies of the West as opposed to staying under the domination of Russia. Given a free choice, that is not a tough decision to make, given the corruption and dictatorial institutions that now characterize Russia.
There is no way we can accept the principle that a major power may invade its neighbor simply to prevent it from making a free choice of how it wishes to be governed and organize its economy. If Russia succeeds in establishing that principle in Ukraine, it will go on to spread that principle as it sees fit in Europe and challenge the US and other free countries that wish to remain free to make their own choices. We must not let that happen.
Given the high stakes at issue in Ukraine, we should be pouring into Ukraine all of the weapons and training they need to gain a significant edge on the battlefield and push out the Russian invaders. Let's get on with it!
Yes! Agreed.
Please help me out here folks. What I'm looking for are those who are taking a wider view than this current conflict. Everybody is so focused on Ukraine that I fear this war is not being put in to a necessary larger context. For example...
The Ukraine war will end someday. Other conflicts will follow. And sooner or later one of these conflicts will spin out of control. If not in Ukraine, then somewhere, somehow, someday. In the nuclear era, we are playing a game of Russian roulette with each of these conflicts, and it's just not credible that the chamber will forever come up empty.
If the above is true, then a near exclusive focus on particular conflicts one by one by one as they happen may be a serious logic failure. Real victory is not just winning in Ukraine, it's saving this civilization from self destruction.
Yes, we need to win in Ukraine, and I support the approach McFaul advises and Biden is pursuing. I'm on board with all that. But that's just not enough. We need to meet the larger challenge too, which could perhaps be defined this way...
The marriage between violent men and an accelerating knowledge explosion is unsustainable.
We face a choice between the knowledge explosion and violent men.
We can have either, but not both.
Elegant analysis. Yes, path-dependent. Notwithstanding his prodigious, successful efforts de novo to mobilize the West, Biden's continuing feckless provision of only *just enough* advanced weaponry for Ukraine to maintain an endless, grinding, stalemate vs. Russian barbarism while their people bleed and die for *our* freedom, is hauntingly reminiscent of his pathetic (mis)management of the Afghanistan extraction. Can he raise his timid spirit from the futile equipoise on it is currently (and characteristically) sitting? That is your implicit, and my explicit question?!
Thank you again for a sober & gritty assessment. Totally agree with you.
Thank you Ben for your critically pragmatic & gritty assessment.
But aren't most of these things up to NATO, not just Biden? All of these accomplishments will require the efforts of multiple countries. So far, that's mostly been happening, but I agree, more is needed. Today's announcement about the extreme lack of ammo is a bit scary, and it's also maybe a sad example of bad planning for the future in general.
I don't understand why there is a lack of ammo. Is NATO hoarding ammo in case of a wider conflict? Is Russia running out of ammo too?
I'm not sure, I don't know much about defense capabilities. But the NATO sec gen announced this today. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/02/nato-vows-more-ammo-and-additional-capabilities-to-boost-ukraine-spring-offensive/
Thanks for the link. Gotta admit, I'm not too impressed with us not anticipating the need for something as obvious as ammo. The war has been going on a full year, ya know?
Ditto, although maybe it also shows forward planning for future conflicts, which you commented on earlier. Hopefully others on here will chime in with more knowledge about defense capabilities in general.
Thanks again for sober assessment and sharp assessments of needs & todays’s shifts in firing capacities.
Thanks, Ben, that's very helpful. The part I don't understand is why it's taken a year of brutal war in Ukraine to decide we need more ammo. Or have the manufacturers actually been ramping up for a while? It does feel shortsighted across the board.
Thanks for your insights. Good point about the early stages of the war and having other priorities. It will be interesting to see how this ammo shortage shapes thinking and manufacturing down the road (years/decades). Unless Russia is subdued and defeated, the world will need a lot more ammo.
Thanks Ben!
1) Industrial capacity: What was NATO planning on doing if it went to war???
2) Thinking the cold war was over is now proven to be a big mistake, yes?
3) What's "modern" about running out of needed supplies?
The U.S. has a massive defense budget, the biggest in the world by far. And yet we have to worry about running out of something as basic as artillery shells. Disconcerting...
Yes, agreed, sounds right to me.