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How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests

michaelmcfaul.substack.com

How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests

And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.

Michael McFaul
Mar 15, 2023
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My Stanford colleague Abbas Milani and I tried to assess the implications for American national interests of the Chinese-brokered restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Foreign Policy. At first glance, the deal looks like a setback for the U.S., a signal of declining American influence in the Middle East and rising Chinese influence. If you dig a little deeper, however, there positive benefits for the United States and maybe long-term pitfalls for China. Check out our take and let me know what you think. I tackle this subject in depth in my forthcoming book, so eager for feedback.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/14/china-saudi-iran-us-middle-east-geopolitics-diplomacy/

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4 Comments
Laura
Mar 15

It's nice to read a nuanced and detailed perspective on this, thank you. All I keep seeing are articles saying that after this event, US influence in the Middle East is done, forever, end of story, goodnight. And I appreciate the broader historical context to US decisions and their consequences. Any chance the two authors could write up a similar summary in an op-ed in a widely read newspaper or two (to help squash all of the doomsday articles I mentioned above)?

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Ben Willatts
Writes Idealism without illusions
Mar 15

I think the point about selectively containing China is an important one.

Containment as practiced during the Cold War is not possible, not least because of the economic interdependence that exists between America and China.

However, areas, such as microchip production and military expansion in the Pacific, are definitely worth trying to contain the Chinese on.

In essence the US will need to pick its battles (wisely).

Re democracy/autocracy, I broadly agree with this point, however, I would add a level of nuance. Some autocracies are worse than others. For instance, it would be self defeating for the US not to nurture ties with countries like Vietnam where interests are otherwise aligned.

There is a risk by being too ‘pure’ the US alienates potential allies thus undermining efforts to maintain the rules based order.

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