There are a number of asymmetric strategic moves Ukraine could make to destroy the Russian military position, and the Kursk incursion is one of them. For that reason, perhaps it would be better not to speculate about what comes next.
One gnawing problem is the continued Russian advance on Pokrovsk, which is causing some concern in allied capitals. Once again, without getting into specific strategies, it is well known that Ukraine still has reserve battalions that have not been deployed to the front, so a number of possibilities present themselves.
It should also be noted that while Ukraine has serious manpower shortages, Russia does too. The troops being deployed to the front often lack training, and are little better than cannon fodder. Bonuses for signing contracts have been skyrocketing -- a sure indication of recruitment woes. The Putin regime is still protecting the Moscow and St. Petersburg regions from the draft as it drains minority areas dry in the East. Sooner or later, the regime is going to have to change that policy, and face the attendant political risks.
One indication, perhaps, of the lack of professional soldiers, is the news that Wagner troops are being withdrawn from the Sahel, reportedly to defend Kursk. That can't be good news for all the Saharan dictators who depend on those troops to help keep them in power. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-reportedly-leave-burkina-faso/
I think what Ukraine has done by invading Russia is brilliant - why they did this is not for me to speculate, but many reasons why it's a "win" for Ukraine. It makes a mockery of Putin's "red lines" so that should send a message (I hope), to let Ukraine use long range strikes with US weapons to target "the archer" as they say. It seems ridiculous to allow such civilian and infrastructure damage when the Ukrainians know where the Russians are firing from. It makes no sense to me.
And I suspect one result of the Kursk offensive was Ukraine had hoped Putin would pull troops from the Pokrovsk area to defend Kursk. The answer is that Putin is OBSESSED with conquering Ukraine. He has hollowed out Russia from within for this prize... he will lose what he so desperately wants. Touring the Caucuses for allies now, and probably recruits. I wonder what will happen in Mongolia ?
This is one big reason we should allow deep strikes on Russian territory by Ukraine - Putin is weaker after almost 1000 days a war. What better time to finish him off? Might give Russians a fresh start, too.
There is one word of warning for land-for-peace-swaps: Sudeten.
But worse than the obvious, propelling Europe toward WW2, we know now that Hitler's generals were about to dispose Hitler for military adventurism Munich Agreement pulled the rug out from under them., when the Munich Agreement pulled the rug out from under them. The way for invading Poland, the generals had blocked, was free. WW2 became inevitable.
For your poor memory:
At Munich, Chamberlain got an international agreement that Hitler should have the Sudetenland in exchange for Germany making no further demands for land in Europe. Chamberlain said it was 'Peace for our time'. Hitler said he had 'No more territorial demands to make in Europe.
The Kursk gamble for POWs and square kilometers would have mattered, if the russian gov't cared one whit about the welfare of its serfs. But they do not, and it did not. The only thing that can save Ukraine and the reputation of the West is permission to cripple russian factories, logistics and aviation at the source, on their own territory. Putin is gathering art shells and rockets from North Korea, Iran, anywhere he can get them. The West takes months to process just enough to keep the frontlines from collapsing - oh wait, they're collapsing anyway. The Russian military-industrial complex is going full tilt, rockets fall on Ukraine pretty much uninterrupted, FABs are levelling the East, and what does Kyiv have in its arsenal for counterattack? Penny-drones, a ruined economy, and a failed mobilization that ended up tossing bussed meat into the grinder with no basic training or gear. Is the West, as the kids say, delulu?
With current amounts of generous "help" from its big, powerful friends, Ukraine will have no energy infrastructure left by this winter. It will definitely have fewer cities - Pokrovsk is a write-off, Kharkiv is a question mark. A second massive wave of refugees is definitely in the cards - Europe would probably have to start bussing Ukrainian men back to Nenka to get them into the trenches, if only to make room for all the additional Ukrainian women and children they are going to have to accommodate. And all this is somehow preferable to destroying several russian airfields. 1000 days into the war, the russian war machine is thriving, while Ukraine, like the White Queen, runs like mad just to stay in place. What deus ex machina is NATO waiting for? For Putin to choke on his food? Hate to break the news, but russia is a nation of 140 million. its resilience is not tied to a 70-year-old heartbeat.
russia did an excellent job of peeling off the veneer of smug Western self-assurance and showing that their silly multibillion dollar war toys are functionally useless against any threat beyond unarmed brown people in the desert - and even then they are useless, it's just not as instantly obvious. The West has completely forgotten what a real war is, how to wage it, and what its stakes are. It has voluntarily disarmed itself before russia, iran, north korea, and a handful of african kinglets. Sic transit gloria mundi.
There are a number of asymmetric strategic moves Ukraine could make to destroy the Russian military position, and the Kursk incursion is one of them. For that reason, perhaps it would be better not to speculate about what comes next.
One gnawing problem is the continued Russian advance on Pokrovsk, which is causing some concern in allied capitals. Once again, without getting into specific strategies, it is well known that Ukraine still has reserve battalions that have not been deployed to the front, so a number of possibilities present themselves.
It should also be noted that while Ukraine has serious manpower shortages, Russia does too. The troops being deployed to the front often lack training, and are little better than cannon fodder. Bonuses for signing contracts have been skyrocketing -- a sure indication of recruitment woes. The Putin regime is still protecting the Moscow and St. Petersburg regions from the draft as it drains minority areas dry in the East. Sooner or later, the regime is going to have to change that policy, and face the attendant political risks.
One indication, perhaps, of the lack of professional soldiers, is the news that Wagner troops are being withdrawn from the Sahel, reportedly to defend Kursk. That can't be good news for all the Saharan dictators who depend on those troops to help keep them in power. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-reportedly-leave-burkina-faso/
I think what Ukraine has done by invading Russia is brilliant - why they did this is not for me to speculate, but many reasons why it's a "win" for Ukraine. It makes a mockery of Putin's "red lines" so that should send a message (I hope), to let Ukraine use long range strikes with US weapons to target "the archer" as they say. It seems ridiculous to allow such civilian and infrastructure damage when the Ukrainians know where the Russians are firing from. It makes no sense to me.
And I suspect one result of the Kursk offensive was Ukraine had hoped Putin would pull troops from the Pokrovsk area to defend Kursk. The answer is that Putin is OBSESSED with conquering Ukraine. He has hollowed out Russia from within for this prize... he will lose what he so desperately wants. Touring the Caucuses for allies now, and probably recruits. I wonder what will happen in Mongolia ?
This is one big reason we should allow deep strikes on Russian territory by Ukraine - Putin is weaker after almost 1000 days a war. What better time to finish him off? Might give Russians a fresh start, too.
All you do is cheerlead. You answer no one’s questions or challenges. You are no better than most politicians.
Why do I think this is stupid? Or is it me who is stupid?
On the other hand, this what I wrote 1 month before the Russian Invasion into Ukraine:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/1/24/2076430/-German-Chancellor-Merkel-s-lack-of-support-for-Ukrainian-defense-was-just-as-wrong-as-Obamas-un-action
Does this sound stupid?
There is one word of warning for land-for-peace-swaps: Sudeten.
But worse than the obvious, propelling Europe toward WW2, we know now that Hitler's generals were about to dispose Hitler for military adventurism Munich Agreement pulled the rug out from under them., when the Munich Agreement pulled the rug out from under them. The way for invading Poland, the generals had blocked, was free. WW2 became inevitable.
For your poor memory:
At Munich, Chamberlain got an international agreement that Hitler should have the Sudetenland in exchange for Germany making no further demands for land in Europe. Chamberlain said it was 'Peace for our time'. Hitler said he had 'No more territorial demands to make in Europe.
Just like Putin after occupying Crimea 2014.
The Kursk gamble for POWs and square kilometers would have mattered, if the russian gov't cared one whit about the welfare of its serfs. But they do not, and it did not. The only thing that can save Ukraine and the reputation of the West is permission to cripple russian factories, logistics and aviation at the source, on their own territory. Putin is gathering art shells and rockets from North Korea, Iran, anywhere he can get them. The West takes months to process just enough to keep the frontlines from collapsing - oh wait, they're collapsing anyway. The Russian military-industrial complex is going full tilt, rockets fall on Ukraine pretty much uninterrupted, FABs are levelling the East, and what does Kyiv have in its arsenal for counterattack? Penny-drones, a ruined economy, and a failed mobilization that ended up tossing bussed meat into the grinder with no basic training or gear. Is the West, as the kids say, delulu?
With current amounts of generous "help" from its big, powerful friends, Ukraine will have no energy infrastructure left by this winter. It will definitely have fewer cities - Pokrovsk is a write-off, Kharkiv is a question mark. A second massive wave of refugees is definitely in the cards - Europe would probably have to start bussing Ukrainian men back to Nenka to get them into the trenches, if only to make room for all the additional Ukrainian women and children they are going to have to accommodate. And all this is somehow preferable to destroying several russian airfields. 1000 days into the war, the russian war machine is thriving, while Ukraine, like the White Queen, runs like mad just to stay in place. What deus ex machina is NATO waiting for? For Putin to choke on his food? Hate to break the news, but russia is a nation of 140 million. its resilience is not tied to a 70-year-old heartbeat.
russia did an excellent job of peeling off the veneer of smug Western self-assurance and showing that their silly multibillion dollar war toys are functionally useless against any threat beyond unarmed brown people in the desert - and even then they are useless, it's just not as instantly obvious. The West has completely forgotten what a real war is, how to wage it, and what its stakes are. It has voluntarily disarmed itself before russia, iran, north korea, and a handful of african kinglets. Sic transit gloria mundi.