That's an important lesson or perspictive I hadn't noticed in the chaotic events of the last few days. When faced with a force that he couldn't reliably overpower that risked his hold on power Putin cut an embarrassing deal. Definitely worth taking note of.
People (e.g., Sergey Radchenko) are saying the same thing about Prigozhin: that he saw that he didn't have a chance to win against the army, national guard, and whoever else Putin sent to squash the mutiny. This is all so baffling...
One interesting take away is that Wagner forces crossed the border and the guards surrendered. Then passed thru another check point with no opposition.
Then Wagner was able to enter Rostov-on-Don and capture the military headquarters which is in the center of the city, again with little to no opposition. The city is also a logistics hub for units operating in Ukraine. Begging the question why didn't the Russian Army attempt to stop the advance at the city's outskirts?
Possible answers, the garrison was ordered not to engage. The garrison refused to obey. The command did not want collateral damage, i.e. the death of Russian civilians.
Whatever the reason, the response from Putin was weak and could provoke others to attempt a similar operation. It is doubtful that this will play well in Beijing. A successful coup means a change in leadership. Obviously if that happens Beijing would want a regime friendly to the PRC. How far will Beijing go to either keep Putin in power or obtain a regime that remains in the CCP's sphere of influence?
What are your thoughts on Prigozhin going to Belarus? If he were to recruit and train another mercenary force down there, it would seem a good geographic location to attack Kiev. All the Putin, Prigozhin, Lukashenko melodrama has left my crystal ball a little muddy, but I’m not seeing the amount of daylight between these men that I would expect to see after this weekend.
This strange episode has shown the underlying weakness of the Putin regime. If Prigozhin had been more cold and calculating, his mutiny might well have succeeded. Instead, he rashly ordered his troops out of Ukraine and into Russia, and was not ready for success when it unexpectedly came. His Wagner troops took Rostov and Voronezh with almost no resistance, and were driving to within 125 miles of Moscow after only one day. Prigozhin was faced with the question, what next? He most likely had not thought that far ahead.
Putin, meanwhile, behaving with typical cowardice, reportedly decamped from Moscow for points unknown (I'm guessing Valdai). The citizens of Moscow did not rise up in support of their leader. Instead, they waited nervously for the arrival of a gang of sledgehammer-wielding ex-cons, wondering what to do. VIP jets were taking off from Moscow airports, most likely bound for Dubai or other safe havens.
Then the roof fell in. Kadyrov units began advancing on Rostov. Prigozhin's men came under attack on the road to Moscow, and shot down six Russian helicopters and an IL-22 airborne command-center plane, killing 13 airmen. Things were getting serious. Prigozhin probably realized at that point that a 25,000-man army would not be sufficient to hold Rostov and advance on Moscow, even if his objective was just to reach the Russian MoD and throw Gerasimov and Shoigu out the nearest window (they would have been long gone anyway).
So, he came to a deal with Putin, the details of which are still unclear, and folded his hand. In so doing, he unwisely placed himself at the mercy of his enemies. After all, Putin is not well-known for keeping to his agreements. Just the reverse, in fact.
The only check on Putin's impulse to feed Prigozhin to the fishes may be his realization of just how shaky his regime is. In contrast to the quiet desperation in Moscow, the citizens of Rostov actually cheered the Wagnerovtsi when they left town, and jeered the police and other government officials who showed up in their wake. Everyone supports Putin in the polls, but not in real life.
A curious sort of reverse confirmation of Putin's parlous position also came from propagandist Yuriy Kiselev, who on his Sunday night TV show said that the resolution to the Wagner mutiny demonstrated that Russia is a united nation (if that's his definition of united, I'm wondering what he thinks a disunited Russia would look like). Kiselev also dug up an old clip of Putin saying that he is able to forgive many things, but not "betrayal." You can believe Kiselev was lying as usual when he made the first statement. The second statement -- well, he's probably telling the truth, much to Prigozhin's chagrin. https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1672984185596772352
The implications are very far from clear. Prigozhin is a sort of national hero in Russia (of a weird kind) supported by a fair number of Putin's electorate, especially after Bakhmut. Negotiating with Prigozhin does not really undermine Putin. Just the opposite, it is easy to put a spin that Putin, Lukashenko and Prigozhin demonstrated governmental wisdom in a crisis situation. Zelensky and his government is a different story.
That's an important lesson or perspictive I hadn't noticed in the chaotic events of the last few days. When faced with a force that he couldn't reliably overpower that risked his hold on power Putin cut an embarrassing deal. Definitely worth taking note of.
People (e.g., Sergey Radchenko) are saying the same thing about Prigozhin: that he saw that he didn't have a chance to win against the army, national guard, and whoever else Putin sent to squash the mutiny. This is all so baffling...
One interesting take away is that Wagner forces crossed the border and the guards surrendered. Then passed thru another check point with no opposition.
Then Wagner was able to enter Rostov-on-Don and capture the military headquarters which is in the center of the city, again with little to no opposition. The city is also a logistics hub for units operating in Ukraine. Begging the question why didn't the Russian Army attempt to stop the advance at the city's outskirts?
Possible answers, the garrison was ordered not to engage. The garrison refused to obey. The command did not want collateral damage, i.e. the death of Russian civilians.
Whatever the reason, the response from Putin was weak and could provoke others to attempt a similar operation. It is doubtful that this will play well in Beijing. A successful coup means a change in leadership. Obviously if that happens Beijing would want a regime friendly to the PRC. How far will Beijing go to either keep Putin in power or obtain a regime that remains in the CCP's sphere of influence?
What are your thoughts on Prigozhin going to Belarus? If he were to recruit and train another mercenary force down there, it would seem a good geographic location to attack Kiev. All the Putin, Prigozhin, Lukashenko melodrama has left my crystal ball a little muddy, but I’m not seeing the amount of daylight between these men that I would expect to see after this weekend.
This strange episode has shown the underlying weakness of the Putin regime. If Prigozhin had been more cold and calculating, his mutiny might well have succeeded. Instead, he rashly ordered his troops out of Ukraine and into Russia, and was not ready for success when it unexpectedly came. His Wagner troops took Rostov and Voronezh with almost no resistance, and were driving to within 125 miles of Moscow after only one day. Prigozhin was faced with the question, what next? He most likely had not thought that far ahead.
Putin, meanwhile, behaving with typical cowardice, reportedly decamped from Moscow for points unknown (I'm guessing Valdai). The citizens of Moscow did not rise up in support of their leader. Instead, they waited nervously for the arrival of a gang of sledgehammer-wielding ex-cons, wondering what to do. VIP jets were taking off from Moscow airports, most likely bound for Dubai or other safe havens.
Then the roof fell in. Kadyrov units began advancing on Rostov. Prigozhin's men came under attack on the road to Moscow, and shot down six Russian helicopters and an IL-22 airborne command-center plane, killing 13 airmen. Things were getting serious. Prigozhin probably realized at that point that a 25,000-man army would not be sufficient to hold Rostov and advance on Moscow, even if his objective was just to reach the Russian MoD and throw Gerasimov and Shoigu out the nearest window (they would have been long gone anyway).
So, he came to a deal with Putin, the details of which are still unclear, and folded his hand. In so doing, he unwisely placed himself at the mercy of his enemies. After all, Putin is not well-known for keeping to his agreements. Just the reverse, in fact.
The only check on Putin's impulse to feed Prigozhin to the fishes may be his realization of just how shaky his regime is. In contrast to the quiet desperation in Moscow, the citizens of Rostov actually cheered the Wagnerovtsi when they left town, and jeered the police and other government officials who showed up in their wake. Everyone supports Putin in the polls, but not in real life.
A curious sort of reverse confirmation of Putin's parlous position also came from propagandist Yuriy Kiselev, who on his Sunday night TV show said that the resolution to the Wagner mutiny demonstrated that Russia is a united nation (if that's his definition of united, I'm wondering what he thinks a disunited Russia would look like). Kiselev also dug up an old clip of Putin saying that he is able to forgive many things, but not "betrayal." You can believe Kiselev was lying as usual when he made the first statement. The second statement -- well, he's probably telling the truth, much to Prigozhin's chagrin. https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1672984185596772352
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7RMKq8RQj4
“he swerved” not “we” (please delete this after correcting)
Yes, let’s hope so that Putin will not escalate....
The implications are very far from clear. Prigozhin is a sort of national hero in Russia (of a weird kind) supported by a fair number of Putin's electorate, especially after Bakhmut. Negotiating with Prigozhin does not really undermine Putin. Just the opposite, it is easy to put a spin that Putin, Lukashenko and Prigozhin demonstrated governmental wisdom in a crisis situation. Zelensky and his government is a different story.