In reading qome of your written works that you have published in "McFaul World," I have observed a cognitive error under which you mistake "complex" physical systems for "non-complex" physical systems in constructing models of these systems, where a "complex" physical system exhibits one or more "emergent properties," each of which is a property of the whole system and not of the separate parts of this system whereas a "non-complex" physical system exhibits no such property. In the book that is sntitled "The Psychhology of Totalitarianism," the statistician and professor of clinical psychology Mattias Desmet reports that he has discovered in the historical literature that for a large group of the citizens of a given country to make this mistake is a precursor to totalitarian rule over this country. In a related study, the results of which he also reports in "The Psychology of Totalitarianism," Prof. Desmet found that this mistake has resulted in a "replication crisis" in academia and elsewhere under which the model-predicted outcomes of the conditional outcomes of the events of the future fail to replicate when tested against statistically independent data.
This mistake that you have been making is consistent with your cheering for the election of Democratic Party candidates for public office, your high regard for them being the result of mistaking "complex"
physical systems for "non-complex" physical systems in constructing models of these systems. Absent this
mistake, the Platform of the Democratic Party is revealed to be a precursor to totalitarian rule over the
people of the United States.
Means for avoidance of this mistake in the construction of a model of a "complex" physical system were invented, circa 1965, by Ronald Arlie Christensen, then a PhD candidate in the theoretical physics
program of the University of California, Berkeley. Shortly after Christensen was awarded his PhD,
colleagues of mine and I at the Electric Power Research Institute, close to the Stanford campus in Palo Alto California, hired him for the purpose building models of complex physical systems that were
components of nuclear power reactors. After being built, each such model was tested in a statistically independent data set and passed this test. I gave an invited lecture on this work to the faculty and students of the Materials Science department at Stanford. Years later I offered to assist each member of the scientific faculty of Stanford in adopting this technology in the construction of models of "complex" physical systems. Had they taken me up on this offer, the Stanford faculty would have avoided mistaking "complex" physical systems for "non-complex physical systems in the construction of models of these systems going forward. In the event, however, not a single member of the Stanford faculty took me up on my offer. When I queried an acquaintance on the Stanford faculty on why this was so, he explained that his colleagues on the Stanford faculty were "set in their ways."
It is not too late for the Stanford faculty in general and you in particular to change your ways. I am available pro bono, to assist Stanford in this endeavor should it occur. Also, I write rhe substrack on this topic that is tietled "Building Models Of a Physical Systems Without Making Any Mistakes." Signups for this substack are free of charge.
Never underestimate McFaul's and that of his friends and colleagues' knowledge of Russian, Eastern Europe and related subject matter. People talk about the "ivory tower" and the like, though the commentaries by the Ambassador take one to the source and causes of the matter at hand. In a way, no one cares more about Ukraine as Americans need to in view of stopping the rapacious corruption and perfidity of Putin's (and the Putin crowd's) "grand" and "greater" Russian Federation.
I had hoped to be able to engage with Prof. Mcfaul on the logicality of his argument but as he has not engaged on this topic I am exiting this substack. I will re-enter this substack were he to engage with me on this topic.
Dear Prof. MdFaul:
In reading qome of your written works that you have published in "McFaul World," I have observed a cognitive error under which you mistake "complex" physical systems for "non-complex" physical systems in constructing models of these systems, where a "complex" physical system exhibits one or more "emergent properties," each of which is a property of the whole system and not of the separate parts of this system whereas a "non-complex" physical system exhibits no such property. In the book that is sntitled "The Psychhology of Totalitarianism," the statistician and professor of clinical psychology Mattias Desmet reports that he has discovered in the historical literature that for a large group of the citizens of a given country to make this mistake is a precursor to totalitarian rule over this country. In a related study, the results of which he also reports in "The Psychology of Totalitarianism," Prof. Desmet found that this mistake has resulted in a "replication crisis" in academia and elsewhere under which the model-predicted outcomes of the conditional outcomes of the events of the future fail to replicate when tested against statistically independent data.
This mistake that you have been making is consistent with your cheering for the election of Democratic Party candidates for public office, your high regard for them being the result of mistaking "complex"
physical systems for "non-complex" physical systems in constructing models of these systems. Absent this
mistake, the Platform of the Democratic Party is revealed to be a precursor to totalitarian rule over the
people of the United States.
Means for avoidance of this mistake in the construction of a model of a "complex" physical system were invented, circa 1965, by Ronald Arlie Christensen, then a PhD candidate in the theoretical physics
program of the University of California, Berkeley. Shortly after Christensen was awarded his PhD,
colleagues of mine and I at the Electric Power Research Institute, close to the Stanford campus in Palo Alto California, hired him for the purpose building models of complex physical systems that were
components of nuclear power reactors. After being built, each such model was tested in a statistically independent data set and passed this test. I gave an invited lecture on this work to the faculty and students of the Materials Science department at Stanford. Years later I offered to assist each member of the scientific faculty of Stanford in adopting this technology in the construction of models of "complex" physical systems. Had they taken me up on this offer, the Stanford faculty would have avoided mistaking "complex" physical systems for "non-complex physical systems in the construction of models of these systems going forward. In the event, however, not a single member of the Stanford faculty took me up on my offer. When I queried an acquaintance on the Stanford faculty on why this was so, he explained that his colleagues on the Stanford faculty were "set in their ways."
It is not too late for the Stanford faculty in general and you in particular to change your ways. I am available pro bono, to assist Stanford in this endeavor should it occur. Also, I write rhe substrack on this topic that is tietled "Building Models Of a Physical Systems Without Making Any Mistakes." Signups for this substack are free of charge.
Cordially,
Sidney Oldberg
Engineer/Scientist/Public Policy Researcher
Los Altos Hills, California
1-650-518-6636 (mobile)
terry_oldberg@yahoo.com(
Cordially,
Terry Oldberg
Engine
Never underestimate McFaul's and that of his friends and colleagues' knowledge of Russian, Eastern Europe and related subject matter. People talk about the "ivory tower" and the like, though the commentaries by the Ambassador take one to the source and causes of the matter at hand. In a way, no one cares more about Ukraine as Americans need to in view of stopping the rapacious corruption and perfidity of Putin's (and the Putin crowd's) "grand" and "greater" Russian Federation.
I had hoped to be able to engage with Prof. Mcfaul on the logicality of his argument but as he has not engaged on this topic I am exiting this substack. I will re-enter this substack were he to engage with me on this topic.
Terry Oldberg
Engineer/Scientist/Puublic Policy Researcher
Los Altos Hills, California
terry_oldberg@yahoo.com
1-650-518-6636 (moobile)