McFaul's June 2023 Newsletter
My most recent projects and publications
Dear friends and colleagues,
Since I left the government in 2014, I have been writing a monthly newsletter sharing my activities and publications. Here is the one I wrote for February 2023! As always, I welcome your feedback!
June has been a crazy month: lots of grading, writing, and TV.
Earlier this month, I finished teaching a course on great power competition in the 21st century to a fantastic group of students. You can see the syllabus here. For the last session, my wife Donna and I hosted students at our home – a tradition of ours. We enjoyed Burmese food and discussed ways to improve my new book. It is way too long! You can preview the Table of Contents here.
In my day-to-day, I continue to analyze Russia’s war in Ukraine, offering concrete policy recommendations for how to move forward effectively. If you’re interested in understanding why Putin invaded Ukraine and how the war might end, you can check out my talk, “The Causes and Consequences of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine,” here.
There was a lot of breaking news in my world this month, from Blinken's first trip to Beijing to Prigozhin’s short-lived “March of Justice” to Moscow. On Blinken’s trip to China, I suggested that “Improved Relations” with China (or any other country) Should Never Be the Goal of Diplomacy. I also advocated that the U.S. launch a diplomatic surge on Ukraine in my most recent Washington Post article and provided Context for the Guessing Game about the Ukrainian Counteroffensive on Substack. Following Prigozhin’s mutiny, I wrote Why Putin May Soon Be Remembered as “Putin the Weak,” published in the Journal of Democracy, and Lessons from the Mutiny in Russia for the War in Ukraine on Substack.
On Substack, I also held an hour-long Ask Me Anything session. Thank you to everyone who joined me. I do one of these sessions on the first Friday of every month. That said, I did not go live in July due to some travel. But I look forward to seeing you at next month’s Ask Me Anything session on August 4. Join me then!
In light of all breaking news, I also appeared on TV and radio many times in June. The weekend of Prigozhin’s rebellion, I gave over 25 interviews! I won’t list them all here, but you can find some of them below. I discussed how Putin still has a Wagner problem on Press Play, explained on NBC how he might not be able to escalate his war in Ukraine, suggested on MSNBC that Prigozhin’s mutiny is the biggest challenge of Putin’s presidency, and speculated that the mutiny, though over, still endangers Putin on WAMU. I also stated on NPR that this aborted Moscow march only signaled Putin’s weakness, talked about Lukashenka’s hospitality on Current Time, and once again emphasized that providing Ukraine with more and better weapons does not equate to nuclear escalation on Radio Free Europe.
Additionally, I continue to coordinate the International Working Group on Russian Sanctions. This month, our working group released another important paper, outlining how strengthening sanctions can stop Western technology from helping Russia’s military-industrial complex. We also just recently published our Action Plan 2.0. We are always looking for new ideas. If you have any, please share!
To stay updated on events, opportunities, and policy recommendations by scholars at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, please sign up for FSI email blasts and follow us on LinkedIn. As always, feel free to share your comments on the content below and any suggestions for improving this newsletter. To sign up for the newsletter, please click here. And if you don’t already, follow me on Twitter at @McFaul. And join me on Substack at McFaul’s World!
Keep in touch,
Mike
Another thoughtful and insightful article. Although Prigozhin and his mutiny against Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov has garnered the lion's share of press coverage over the past several weeks, I was wondering if you will be commenting on the actions (or inactions) of some of the other key players in the Kremlin. Specifically, I am thinking of Ramzan Kadyrov, Viktor Zolotov, Sergey Naryshkin, Nikolai Patrushev, and Alexander Bortnikov among others. Would one be correct in assuming that the recent actions of Prigozhin and the Wagner PMC have affected the relationship between these men and Vladimir Putin?
I think this isn’t a newsletter for February 2023. Otherwise you must have wonderful foresight for “Putin the weak”.