I struggle to see how things could be worse for the rest of the world with a new Russian leader. The present leader has shown himself to be thoroughly committed to occupying, indeed destroying, Ukraine and meddling in other countries. The only ‘good’ thing about him is that his misrule has greatly reduced the power of the Russian state to achieve its imperial ambitions.
Regime change would be nice but it’s a distraction. What we need to concentrate on is getting Russia out of Ukraine and leave it to the Russians to work their own politics. That said a new ruler at least offers a chance that he could recall the troops while he (or a very unlikely she) concentrates on consolidating internal power. At least that ruler won’t have their ego tied up with the Ukraine misadventure. Finally, Putin is 70 and not going to rule forever. It’s dumb to worry about the inevitable regime change. PS Glad your back in the saddle Dr McFaul!
Thank you for your compendious analysis. As a student, it is very beneficial. In addition, it was excellent to read Secretary Rice, and Secretary Gates oped in the Washington Post.
Thank you Mike! Your perspicacity on these affairs strikes me as reasonable, thoughtful, practical and pragmatic. Your experience in the area and with the ket players including Putin strike me as further evidence of the perspicacity of your views. Thank you for your simple straightforward thinking & writing. Yours is a voice of reason to my understanding of all the same factors.
The Soviet Union, through its federal structure that was ostensibly based on nationality, was tailor-made for a breakup, even though Stalin made sure to include bits of other nationalities in most federal republics so that there would be endless internal divisions that would militate against unified independence movements. That's why we now have Armenians fighting Azerbaijanis, Georgians fighting Ossetians, Tajiks fighting Kyrgyz, etc. Nearly everybody has a grievance of some sort.
The current Russian Federation is over 80% ethnic Russian, and while there are a couple of dozen national ethnic groups that might be construed to have their own homeland, few would be viable.
Chechnya and Sakha might be the exceptions to this rule -- the rest are mostly surrounded by Greater Russia, or are simply not particularly significant.
The bottom line is that the further breakup of the territory that once formed the Soviet Union is much less likely than the original breakup that occurred in 1991. Most pundits were late to the party that time, and now, as if to compound their error, many are early to the party this time.
Would love to read from you about what the major differences between Democratization and Political Liberalization in Russia could look like. We need hope! 💫
Oh and speaking of hope- I hope you feel fully recuperated very soon! 💐
Thank you, this leaves a lot to chew on. Question: Is the military cohesive and strong enough to push back against any wannabe coup leaders? We've heard plenty about the lack of experience of Shoigu and the general disarray among the military leadership, so I'm wondering whether they could/would be poised to defend Putin against a coup attempt.
I struggle to see how things could be worse for the rest of the world with a new Russian leader. The present leader has shown himself to be thoroughly committed to occupying, indeed destroying, Ukraine and meddling in other countries. The only ‘good’ thing about him is that his misrule has greatly reduced the power of the Russian state to achieve its imperial ambitions.
Regime change would be nice but it’s a distraction. What we need to concentrate on is getting Russia out of Ukraine and leave it to the Russians to work their own politics. That said a new ruler at least offers a chance that he could recall the troops while he (or a very unlikely she) concentrates on consolidating internal power. At least that ruler won’t have their ego tied up with the Ukraine misadventure. Finally, Putin is 70 and not going to rule forever. It’s dumb to worry about the inevitable regime change. PS Glad your back in the saddle Dr McFaul!
Thank you for your compendious analysis. As a student, it is very beneficial. In addition, it was excellent to read Secretary Rice, and Secretary Gates oped in the Washington Post.
Thank you Mike! Your perspicacity on these affairs strikes me as reasonable, thoughtful, practical and pragmatic. Your experience in the area and with the ket players including Putin strike me as further evidence of the perspicacity of your views. Thank you for your simple straightforward thinking & writing. Yours is a voice of reason to my understanding of all the same factors.
The Soviet Union, through its federal structure that was ostensibly based on nationality, was tailor-made for a breakup, even though Stalin made sure to include bits of other nationalities in most federal republics so that there would be endless internal divisions that would militate against unified independence movements. That's why we now have Armenians fighting Azerbaijanis, Georgians fighting Ossetians, Tajiks fighting Kyrgyz, etc. Nearly everybody has a grievance of some sort.
The current Russian Federation is over 80% ethnic Russian, and while there are a couple of dozen national ethnic groups that might be construed to have their own homeland, few would be viable.
Chechnya and Sakha might be the exceptions to this rule -- the rest are mostly surrounded by Greater Russia, or are simply not particularly significant.
The bottom line is that the further breakup of the territory that once formed the Soviet Union is much less likely than the original breakup that occurred in 1991. Most pundits were late to the party that time, and now, as if to compound their error, many are early to the party this time.
Would love to read from you about what the major differences between Democratization and Political Liberalization in Russia could look like. We need hope! 💫
Oh and speaking of hope- I hope you feel fully recuperated very soon! 💐
Thank you, this leaves a lot to chew on. Question: Is the military cohesive and strong enough to push back against any wannabe coup leaders? We've heard plenty about the lack of experience of Shoigu and the general disarray among the military leadership, so I'm wondering whether they could/would be poised to defend Putin against a coup attempt.