I still keep coming back to this idea of what a Russian defeat looks like. The war is fought completely so far in Ukraine so the physical and psychological scars are there more than in Russia. We can’t say all because clearly the families of dead Russian soldiers are suffering. If it ends with a negotiated peace with Putin in power, I am not sure how anyone rests easy. He might bide his time until the world is distracted by balloons and go again. However, whether he is there or not might not be that relevant. I would really like know where the Russian people stand. The Russians I know are against it, but they are mostly academics. Even if Putin is gone, is there a will among the Russian people and perhaps a future leader to continue this war? Zelensky’s plan is excellent and McFaul’s evaluation and advice are spot on... I just get a weird feeling that this is bigger than Putin...
All good ideas - especially the confiscation of Russian assets to pay for the destruction they've wrought- but first things first. Let's give Ukraine everything it needs to get the Russians out of Ukraine.
It's hard to imagine any real peace in Ukraine while Putin is still alive. It looks to me that Putin has staked his life on this war, and there's no way out for him but continuing the war. I don't see how he survives if he walks away with nothing. Zelenskyy's settlement proposal is fine with me, but it basically calls for Putin to commit suicide. The proposal seems aimed more at Ukraine's allies than at Russia.
Here's a question perhaps you can address.
What happens if Russia withdraws it's forces from Ukraine, and then keeps hitting Ukraine with missiles launched from Russian territory? Is the West going to approve NATO supplied weapons being used to hit targets in Russia?
If yes, Putin could then credibly claim that NATO is attacking Russia, because we essentially would be. This might rally the Russian people around Putin, keeping him alive and in power.
Putin can't win in Ukraine, but he can't afford to just give up and go home either. What kind of middle ground might Putin be plotting?
Thanks for alerting us to the Multi-agency Donor Coordination Platform, I hadn't heard about that. I worry about all of those parties agreeing on new funding streams and confiscating Russian assets, but remain hopeful.
I still keep coming back to this idea of what a Russian defeat looks like. The war is fought completely so far in Ukraine so the physical and psychological scars are there more than in Russia. We can’t say all because clearly the families of dead Russian soldiers are suffering. If it ends with a negotiated peace with Putin in power, I am not sure how anyone rests easy. He might bide his time until the world is distracted by balloons and go again. However, whether he is there or not might not be that relevant. I would really like know where the Russian people stand. The Russians I know are against it, but they are mostly academics. Even if Putin is gone, is there a will among the Russian people and perhaps a future leader to continue this war? Zelensky’s plan is excellent and McFaul’s evaluation and advice are spot on... I just get a weird feeling that this is bigger than Putin...
All good ideas - especially the confiscation of Russian assets to pay for the destruction they've wrought- but first things first. Let's give Ukraine everything it needs to get the Russians out of Ukraine.
Thank you Mike! Another finely reasoned and pragmatic appraisal. You reassure me, but I concur with your concerns on all fronts.
It's hard to imagine any real peace in Ukraine while Putin is still alive. It looks to me that Putin has staked his life on this war, and there's no way out for him but continuing the war. I don't see how he survives if he walks away with nothing. Zelenskyy's settlement proposal is fine with me, but it basically calls for Putin to commit suicide. The proposal seems aimed more at Ukraine's allies than at Russia.
Here's a question perhaps you can address.
What happens if Russia withdraws it's forces from Ukraine, and then keeps hitting Ukraine with missiles launched from Russian territory? Is the West going to approve NATO supplied weapons being used to hit targets in Russia?
If yes, Putin could then credibly claim that NATO is attacking Russia, because we essentially would be. This might rally the Russian people around Putin, keeping him alive and in power.
Putin can't win in Ukraine, but he can't afford to just give up and go home either. What kind of middle ground might Putin be plotting?
Thanks for alerting us to the Multi-agency Donor Coordination Platform, I hadn't heard about that. I worry about all of those parties agreeing on new funding streams and confiscating Russian assets, but remain hopeful.