The question of Iranian nuclear weapons is a difficult, almost impossible problem to solve. As a person who is a Soviet/Russia specialist, but who has far less expertise in Iranian affairs, it's not one that I'm particularly well-suited to answer.
I can make a few observations, however.
First, we wouldn't be in this mess if Trump had not foolishly withdrawn from the JCPOA in 2018. That was an act of folly that has compromised all future attempts to negotiate a deal with Iran.
Second, a diplomatic solution is made even more improbable by the extremely poor quality of Trump's negotiators, and the fact that recently, the number of those qualified in the USG to make expert judgments on this issue has been steadily draining away.
Third, it's 100% certain that Trump just glommed onto Israel's success in an attempt to hog some of the credit, and currently has no idea what to do next. His usual cop out: "We'll know in two weeks" is his all-purpose reply when he's in over his head and hopes the crisis will somehow go away all by itself.
Fourth, I'm not sure, given today's realities, that we can trust Iran to adhere to any agreement, or to refrain from a preemptive attack if they ever do get nuclear weapons. This was never a concern for me with the Soviets. They would cheat on agreements, to be sure, but the Soviet leadership was far too conservative ever to consider a preemptive nuclear strike.
Fifth, I'm not even sure we can trust ourselves, given the inability of the Trump administration to work on this problem now, and our tendency in other times to kick the can down the road until it is too late, and all our options are gone.
In sum, we're in a mess, and I don't know how we get out of it. I defer to others to suggest solutions.
The seventh reason should perhaps be the first. It will legitimize what Russia is doing in Ukraine and perhaps what China may do in Taiwan. I honestly wondered why Russia is not coming to at least the verbal aid of Iran. I think this really explains that now that Russia is making its own Shahid drones. Putin needs to prove his assertion that the US still invades countries to effect political takeover and kills civilians too. This may also explain why Trump seems to think a US invasion is necessary. He continues his Russian-led sedition against US democracy.
When I read “The mullahs ruling Iran,” I almost laughed out loud. Then I saw phrases like “buy time for diplomacy” and finally, “Trump owes it to the American people to explain why this war is necessary,” and I had to admit, this is an exceptionally rational and persuasive article.
First, the author has a clear understanding of the situation in the Middle East. Second, the alignment between the U.S. President and the intelligence community is indeed questionable. The author’s perspective on war, especially the emphasis on “preemptive” action, is thought-provoking, because if you don’t act first, you can only respond passively later, which inevitably puts you on the back foot.
Thank you to the author for yet another powerful piece.
Michael McFaul’s post is a thoughtful, sobering contemplation. Is anyone in the Trump administration even reading this, much less taking heed? Disparaging Obama and Biden is de rigeur in Trump-MAGA world.
Trump’s priority on loyalty would inspire confidence were his choices as strong in their expertise. It seems to me Democrats in Congress could be asserting themselves and very publicly, loudly and unremittingly asking such questions and demanding answers.
RE ramifications, the threat posed by Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine and Putin stampeding over Eastern Europe is of greater concern to me than the threat posed by Iran. Of this distraction Netanyahu is utterly indifferent. Vainglorious action on Iran could be striking a hornets’ nest as McFaul spells out. Netanyahu’s insouciance to destruction of homes and infrastructure and innocent lives being taken in that pursuit on the scale of Gaza horrifies and sickens me. Buy and take time for diplomacy as McFaul argues re Iran and stand up to Putin in Ukraine NOW.
Having read your note and the associated comments, these narratives are provocative and captivating to one interested in politics and its relationship to the military, plus the endgames involved. In 1981, Israel bombed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq, again given the dangers of nuclear proliferation and aggression, and a priori Iraqi policies against Israel plus international blackmail that an additional nuclear threat proposed at the time. The situation today given the arms buildup in Iran and nuclear weapons included -- different day. Also, and I am no expert, it does appear from news details and the swift character of decision and action in Israel and U.S. administrative support of this, that the Israelis have a defense model that considers a multitude of factors and force vectors, not just, for example a decision table with peers talking : Sort of like an automated Kasparov chess match. It is also obvious that Netanyahu and Trump might have been talking for weeks or months about what is currently in the news about the bombings and rockets. The violence is atrocious and one needs to comprehend both scale and scope, plus all the robotics of it, in order to interpret what has happened, the present and what will happen. In the Israeli war rooms, though this is speculation, the conflict with Iran is a closed issue, even if there are more bombs and rockets. If Iran persists in these deathly, gruesome, extremely economically costly pursuits; and in order to eviscerate Israel that is a strong U.S. ally, Iran could buy the farm, something that is not really rational, nor overall is the pursuit of nuclear destruction.
The comments in your note about the Putins really provoke a thought and nonetheless one must defer to your expertise and I will try to buy the book. China is a different issue that you portray as a form of political and dialectical onlooking at American and Israel by the CCP. This just contributes to the overall frenzy of violence and destruction as the CCP is grossly negligent in its obligations to denounce Iran as a terrorist state, essentially. This cannot be bought and the CCP goes its merry way. Watching the video segments on the network news is sickening overall and the violence should stop. It is sad that a country, even with a primitive regime, but one run by educated people following a supposedly honorable and peaceful idea such as Islam would want to have an open public policy and imperative, and racially charged, to kill others. It is also entirely possible Iran, again given the very expensive, needless and wasteful spending on arms and nukes, will not ex ante be able to stand on its own two feet internationally, and it became time just to blow things up.
Trump said in a brief White House interview that, “Nobody knows what I’m gonna do.” I must assume that includes himself.
Innocent people are being killed, there is considerable danger of a “Chernobyl” style nuclear radiation disaster caused by the Israeli bombing, Israel nor the U.S. is unlikely to be able to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, most of which are underground, and the world is alarmed and waiting for a solution.
So Trump, who allowed and was mainly responsible for this world-threatening situation to happen, is the sole source of humanity that has the power to cease and desist and stop this potential beginning of WWIII?
The question of Iranian nuclear weapons is a difficult, almost impossible problem to solve. As a person who is a Soviet/Russia specialist, but who has far less expertise in Iranian affairs, it's not one that I'm particularly well-suited to answer.
I can make a few observations, however.
First, we wouldn't be in this mess if Trump had not foolishly withdrawn from the JCPOA in 2018. That was an act of folly that has compromised all future attempts to negotiate a deal with Iran.
Second, a diplomatic solution is made even more improbable by the extremely poor quality of Trump's negotiators, and the fact that recently, the number of those qualified in the USG to make expert judgments on this issue has been steadily draining away.
Third, it's 100% certain that Trump just glommed onto Israel's success in an attempt to hog some of the credit, and currently has no idea what to do next. His usual cop out: "We'll know in two weeks" is his all-purpose reply when he's in over his head and hopes the crisis will somehow go away all by itself.
Fourth, I'm not sure, given today's realities, that we can trust Iran to adhere to any agreement, or to refrain from a preemptive attack if they ever do get nuclear weapons. This was never a concern for me with the Soviets. They would cheat on agreements, to be sure, but the Soviet leadership was far too conservative ever to consider a preemptive nuclear strike.
Fifth, I'm not even sure we can trust ourselves, given the inability of the Trump administration to work on this problem now, and our tendency in other times to kick the can down the road until it is too late, and all our options are gone.
In sum, we're in a mess, and I don't know how we get out of it. I defer to others to suggest solutions.
The seventh reason should perhaps be the first. It will legitimize what Russia is doing in Ukraine and perhaps what China may do in Taiwan. I honestly wondered why Russia is not coming to at least the verbal aid of Iran. I think this really explains that now that Russia is making its own Shahid drones. Putin needs to prove his assertion that the US still invades countries to effect political takeover and kills civilians too. This may also explain why Trump seems to think a US invasion is necessary. He continues his Russian-led sedition against US democracy.
Charlie Chaplin should remind us it is not just Iran. https://substack.com/@beverly143/note/c-125914543?r=2lvsp&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
When I read “The mullahs ruling Iran,” I almost laughed out loud. Then I saw phrases like “buy time for diplomacy” and finally, “Trump owes it to the American people to explain why this war is necessary,” and I had to admit, this is an exceptionally rational and persuasive article.
First, the author has a clear understanding of the situation in the Middle East. Second, the alignment between the U.S. President and the intelligence community is indeed questionable. The author’s perspective on war, especially the emphasis on “preemptive” action, is thought-provoking, because if you don’t act first, you can only respond passively later, which inevitably puts you on the back foot.
Thank you to the author for yet another powerful piece.
Michael McFaul’s post is a thoughtful, sobering contemplation. Is anyone in the Trump administration even reading this, much less taking heed? Disparaging Obama and Biden is de rigeur in Trump-MAGA world.
Trump’s priority on loyalty would inspire confidence were his choices as strong in their expertise. It seems to me Democrats in Congress could be asserting themselves and very publicly, loudly and unremittingly asking such questions and demanding answers.
RE ramifications, the threat posed by Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine and Putin stampeding over Eastern Europe is of greater concern to me than the threat posed by Iran. Of this distraction Netanyahu is utterly indifferent. Vainglorious action on Iran could be striking a hornets’ nest as McFaul spells out. Netanyahu’s insouciance to destruction of homes and infrastructure and innocent lives being taken in that pursuit on the scale of Gaza horrifies and sickens me. Buy and take time for diplomacy as McFaul argues re Iran and stand up to Putin in Ukraine NOW.
Having read your note and the associated comments, these narratives are provocative and captivating to one interested in politics and its relationship to the military, plus the endgames involved. In 1981, Israel bombed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq, again given the dangers of nuclear proliferation and aggression, and a priori Iraqi policies against Israel plus international blackmail that an additional nuclear threat proposed at the time. The situation today given the arms buildup in Iran and nuclear weapons included -- different day. Also, and I am no expert, it does appear from news details and the swift character of decision and action in Israel and U.S. administrative support of this, that the Israelis have a defense model that considers a multitude of factors and force vectors, not just, for example a decision table with peers talking : Sort of like an automated Kasparov chess match. It is also obvious that Netanyahu and Trump might have been talking for weeks or months about what is currently in the news about the bombings and rockets. The violence is atrocious and one needs to comprehend both scale and scope, plus all the robotics of it, in order to interpret what has happened, the present and what will happen. In the Israeli war rooms, though this is speculation, the conflict with Iran is a closed issue, even if there are more bombs and rockets. If Iran persists in these deathly, gruesome, extremely economically costly pursuits; and in order to eviscerate Israel that is a strong U.S. ally, Iran could buy the farm, something that is not really rational, nor overall is the pursuit of nuclear destruction.
The comments in your note about the Putins really provoke a thought and nonetheless one must defer to your expertise and I will try to buy the book. China is a different issue that you portray as a form of political and dialectical onlooking at American and Israel by the CCP. This just contributes to the overall frenzy of violence and destruction as the CCP is grossly negligent in its obligations to denounce Iran as a terrorist state, essentially. This cannot be bought and the CCP goes its merry way. Watching the video segments on the network news is sickening overall and the violence should stop. It is sad that a country, even with a primitive regime, but one run by educated people following a supposedly honorable and peaceful idea such as Islam would want to have an open public policy and imperative, and racially charged, to kill others. It is also entirely possible Iran, again given the very expensive, needless and wasteful spending on arms and nukes, will not ex ante be able to stand on its own two feet internationally, and it became time just to blow things up.
Trump said in a brief White House interview that, “Nobody knows what I’m gonna do.” I must assume that includes himself.
Innocent people are being killed, there is considerable danger of a “Chernobyl” style nuclear radiation disaster caused by the Israeli bombing, Israel nor the U.S. is unlikely to be able to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, most of which are underground, and the world is alarmed and waiting for a solution.
So Trump, who allowed and was mainly responsible for this world-threatening situation to happen, is the sole source of humanity that has the power to cease and desist and stop this potential beginning of WWIII?