In the first week of peace negotiations, Trump and his negotiation team gave Putin everything he wanted and got nothing for Ukraine in return. I hope the second week will be better.
The concession list for Ukraine to me seems cartoonish and I’m an artist not a diplomat. I know my cartoons. It’s clear, to me anyway, Trump is a bad faith negotiator and one in a particular hurry. I see now, I understand his comments about ending the war on day one, were for the world who doesn’t know him as well as many here. Just saying I’m a New Yorker and my elder brother is the same age as Trump. My heads been spinning since 2015. At times it’s difficult to process he has real authority. Thanks for your perspective. 🙏
If Trump is focused on developing his relationship with Putin and restarting U.S.-Russia relations, would he really be indifferent if the Ukrainians don't agree to any of the deal? It seems like Trump also wants to (must?) follow Putin's demands. Why is Zelenskyy agreeing to the rare earths deal? Thanks for your insights.
I've been looking at early reports of the minerals agreement and have a few preliminary comments. Subsequent reports may modify or invalidate them, but this is how I see the situation right now.
Anyone who has negotiated with the Ukrainians knows they don't give away something for nothing. In this case, they appear to have given away next to nothing for nothing.
True, there are no security assurances (no problem: Trump's promises on that score are worthless anyway). There is also no longer a mythical $500 billion in aid repayment that Trump was salivating after. The actual U.S. aid figure is more like $183 billion. Of the $67 billion in military aid, about $58 billion was spent in the U.S., and around $3.9 billion was never spent at all.
Instead, according to the Kyiv Independent, only about $4 billion of the aid sent to Ukraine by the U.S. was in the form of loans that must be repaid. This all by itself will be quite a burden on the Ukraine minerals industry.
According to FT and Meduza, the framework agreement, which is the only one ready for signing, "stipulates the creation of a fund to which Ukraine will allocate 50 percent of future revenues from the extraction of minerals, oil, and gas. The fund will be used to invest in projects within Ukraine." The implementing agreements have yet to be negotiated.
So, in other words, Trump has been snookered as usual, and his vision of $500 billion somehow finding its way into his personal bank account is just another flimflam idea.
This is what passes for diplomacy in the Trump administration.
I just saw a headline in the NYT that Ukraine had made a deal with Putin/Trump regarding Ukraine'mineral rights. It is not 100% official and no one would talk about the terms. I hope Zelenskyy isn't naive about Trump and isn't being taken advantage of. Trump is a liar and a cheat and a bully. Michael, offer to help with negotiations!
On Washington Week in Review last Friday, Feb 21,2025, Reporters were asked: “Would Trump be upset if Russian tanks rolled into Kiev to take over Ukraine? Answer: NO!”
Observing from Ireland, it increasingly appears that the direction of the Trump administration raises serious questions about the future alignment of the United States. The agenda Trump is driving seem to echo those found in autocratic states such as Russia, Belarus, or North Korea. The recent UN vote, for instance, has been interpreted by many as a sign that, at least in Trump's view, the US is stepping away from its role as a leader of the free world and is realigning with the not-free world. The crucial issue now is whether US institutions—the rule of law, the Constitution, and the resolve of its freedom-loving citizens—can withstand these shifts. I remain quite astonished by the silence among former US presidents, Democrats, and even moderate Republicans, as if they were restrained from speaking out. I am even more alarmed at so called Irish-Americans that voted and continue to support Trump given our history of hundreds of years of oppression.
The concession list for Ukraine to me seems cartoonish and I’m an artist not a diplomat. I know my cartoons. It’s clear, to me anyway, Trump is a bad faith negotiator and one in a particular hurry. I see now, I understand his comments about ending the war on day one, were for the world who doesn’t know him as well as many here. Just saying I’m a New Yorker and my elder brother is the same age as Trump. My heads been spinning since 2015. At times it’s difficult to process he has real authority. Thanks for your perspective. 🙏
If Trump is focused on developing his relationship with Putin and restarting U.S.-Russia relations, would he really be indifferent if the Ukrainians don't agree to any of the deal? It seems like Trump also wants to (must?) follow Putin's demands. Why is Zelenskyy agreeing to the rare earths deal? Thanks for your insights.
I've been looking at early reports of the minerals agreement and have a few preliminary comments. Subsequent reports may modify or invalidate them, but this is how I see the situation right now.
Anyone who has negotiated with the Ukrainians knows they don't give away something for nothing. In this case, they appear to have given away next to nothing for nothing.
True, there are no security assurances (no problem: Trump's promises on that score are worthless anyway). There is also no longer a mythical $500 billion in aid repayment that Trump was salivating after. The actual U.S. aid figure is more like $183 billion. Of the $67 billion in military aid, about $58 billion was spent in the U.S., and around $3.9 billion was never spent at all.
Instead, according to the Kyiv Independent, only about $4 billion of the aid sent to Ukraine by the U.S. was in the form of loans that must be repaid. This all by itself will be quite a burden on the Ukraine minerals industry.
According to FT and Meduza, the framework agreement, which is the only one ready for signing, "stipulates the creation of a fund to which Ukraine will allocate 50 percent of future revenues from the extraction of minerals, oil, and gas. The fund will be used to invest in projects within Ukraine." The implementing agreements have yet to be negotiated.
So, in other words, Trump has been snookered as usual, and his vision of $500 billion somehow finding its way into his personal bank account is just another flimflam idea.
This is what passes for diplomacy in the Trump administration.
1,426 days to go and counting.
Are these monetary numbers right? I just read a report saying the following: "Altogether, the study concludes that the actual value of U.S. military aid to Ukraine totals $18.3 billion, while an additional $32.6 billion has been provided in budgetary assistance, mostly through expense reimbursement mechanisms. This brings the total value of delivered aid to $50.9 billion over three years—averaging about $17 billion per year." https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/788915823/new-analysis-from-economists-for-ukraine-economic-value-of-u-s-aid-to-ukraine-is-less-than-half-the-official-figures
Here's where I got my numbers. Different sources give different numbers. https://kyivindependent.com/explainer-did-trump-lie-about-350-billion-aid-to-ukraine-and-does-kyiv-have-to-repay-it/?fbclid=IwY2xjawIrRuJleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHQUtfapIq2tmWPNNC6RbtXnz0zCZqvyWJ9uu5rY0C_pLS_t3IUQ65cQtkw_aem_NCWq4RdordaTEzimExO93Q
Here is a Financial Times article analyzing the bilateral agreement. It should be available to all. https://www.ft.com/content/51b3dcee-25cb-4c89-88bc-f9f8ac37c6ef?emailId=f91d3d84-a678-4bbe-808e-e060748d9583&segmentId=72adc702-369e-fc3e-1b5d-cacb5d193d80
I just saw a headline in the NYT that Ukraine had made a deal with Putin/Trump regarding Ukraine'mineral rights. It is not 100% official and no one would talk about the terms. I hope Zelenskyy isn't naive about Trump and isn't being taken advantage of. Trump is a liar and a cheat and a bully. Michael, offer to help with negotiations!
On Washington Week in Review last Friday, Feb 21,2025, Reporters were asked: “Would Trump be upset if Russian tanks rolled into Kiev to take over Ukraine? Answer: NO!”
Observing from Ireland, it increasingly appears that the direction of the Trump administration raises serious questions about the future alignment of the United States. The agenda Trump is driving seem to echo those found in autocratic states such as Russia, Belarus, or North Korea. The recent UN vote, for instance, has been interpreted by many as a sign that, at least in Trump's view, the US is stepping away from its role as a leader of the free world and is realigning with the not-free world. The crucial issue now is whether US institutions—the rule of law, the Constitution, and the resolve of its freedom-loving citizens—can withstand these shifts. I remain quite astonished by the silence among former US presidents, Democrats, and even moderate Republicans, as if they were restrained from speaking out. I am even more alarmed at so called Irish-Americans that voted and continue to support Trump given our history of hundreds of years of oppression.