In my view, the situation has changed fundamentally for Vladimir Putin. Now, people will either live in terror of him, as they did with Stalin, afraid to make a move lest it be their last; or, if someone does choose to defy him, they will know for sure what the consequences of failure will be.
As Joshua Yaffa wrote in The New Yorker: "[Prigozhin] made two miscalculations...one was launching the rebellion in the first place, but, having done so, the real error was ending it prematurely. Putin may have frightened the élite into obedience, but now they all know, once and for all, that any supposed claims of a pardon or forgiveness can’t be trusted. That leaves only the most extreme option. On the night of Prigozhin’s death, a Telegram channel run by a far-right unit linked to Wagner published a post that was quickly shared widely: “Let this be a lesson to all,” it read. “Always go all the way.”
When this news broke yesterday, my brother texted me and asked, “is this true?” I teach Russian history, fyi. I answered, “not sure we can ever ever know.” Depite the awkward phrase, what I meant was here is an event that is filmed and by all indications seems to be that Prigozhin is dead at the hand, of sorts, of Putin. Yet, how will we ever know for sure? Or, does it matter. After reading about this in my phone yesterday, I walked into a class on historical research methods for history majors and used this story as an example. How do we really know what happens? And when? Then, when and how do we assign historical significance to the event. Dr. McFaul being a Poltical Scientist, former ambassador, and employee of NBC, was thrust on TV to explain this immediately... not an enviable position. I would say actually at the moment quite impossible despite the good contacts inside of Russia I am sure he has. The Russian political world is still quite opaque. My point is that - we are left with two questions at this moment. 1. Is he really dead? In the next days, will there be a photo of his body? He had lots of disguises... hmm. Or, will there be DNA test? Can people trust this? 2. Assuming he is dead, is Putin responsible? Lots of people have died under Putin. Many have been attributed to him, but some not. This ambiguity will persist regardless to the public. Inside the Russian political world, they might know who did it and why... but it may or may not have been done by Putin... the meaning still to be determined....
Fascinating but chilling to consider that it's too dangerous for Putin to admit to the killing but he took out Prigozhin in a brutally violent way, in broad daylight over a Russian town, with 8 others aboard, 2 months to the day of the mutiny (instead of, say, a nudge out a window or a bullet while he was in Africa this week).
Agree Prigozhin made one mistake, he should have marched all the way to Moscow and died trying to kill Putin. The United States demonizes their enemy leaders he has brain cancer, he is insane, he has numerous body doubles, he is dying. Putin will die an old man and will be in power until the day that he dies same as Stalin. We need to learn on how to get along with him, just like Churchill and Rosevelt got along with Stalin.
Might your list of Putin’s fated challengers also include a rising political star (General and Governor of Krasnoyarsk oblast) Alexander Lebed whose helicopter got tangled in power lines according to Emergencies Ministry then headed by Sergei Shoigu in 2002? At that time, Alexei Arbatov, a senior parliamentary deputy (and Yabloko member) suggested sabotage could have been its cause.
In my view, the situation has changed fundamentally for Vladimir Putin. Now, people will either live in terror of him, as they did with Stalin, afraid to make a move lest it be their last; or, if someone does choose to defy him, they will know for sure what the consequences of failure will be.
As Joshua Yaffa wrote in The New Yorker: "[Prigozhin] made two miscalculations...one was launching the rebellion in the first place, but, having done so, the real error was ending it prematurely. Putin may have frightened the élite into obedience, but now they all know, once and for all, that any supposed claims of a pardon or forgiveness can’t be trusted. That leaves only the most extreme option. On the night of Prigozhin’s death, a Telegram channel run by a far-right unit linked to Wagner published a post that was quickly shared widely: “Let this be a lesson to all,” it read. “Always go all the way.”
When this news broke yesterday, my brother texted me and asked, “is this true?” I teach Russian history, fyi. I answered, “not sure we can ever ever know.” Depite the awkward phrase, what I meant was here is an event that is filmed and by all indications seems to be that Prigozhin is dead at the hand, of sorts, of Putin. Yet, how will we ever know for sure? Or, does it matter. After reading about this in my phone yesterday, I walked into a class on historical research methods for history majors and used this story as an example. How do we really know what happens? And when? Then, when and how do we assign historical significance to the event. Dr. McFaul being a Poltical Scientist, former ambassador, and employee of NBC, was thrust on TV to explain this immediately... not an enviable position. I would say actually at the moment quite impossible despite the good contacts inside of Russia I am sure he has. The Russian political world is still quite opaque. My point is that - we are left with two questions at this moment. 1. Is he really dead? In the next days, will there be a photo of his body? He had lots of disguises... hmm. Or, will there be DNA test? Can people trust this? 2. Assuming he is dead, is Putin responsible? Lots of people have died under Putin. Many have been attributed to him, but some not. This ambiguity will persist regardless to the public. Inside the Russian political world, they might know who did it and why... but it may or may not have been done by Putin... the meaning still to be determined....
Fascinating but chilling to consider that it's too dangerous for Putin to admit to the killing but he took out Prigozhin in a brutally violent way, in broad daylight over a Russian town, with 8 others aboard, 2 months to the day of the mutiny (instead of, say, a nudge out a window or a bullet while he was in Africa this week).
Agree Prigozhin made one mistake, he should have marched all the way to Moscow and died trying to kill Putin. The United States demonizes their enemy leaders he has brain cancer, he is insane, he has numerous body doubles, he is dying. Putin will die an old man and will be in power until the day that he dies same as Stalin. We need to learn on how to get along with him, just like Churchill and Rosevelt got along with Stalin.
Might your list of Putin’s fated challengers also include a rising political star (General and Governor of Krasnoyarsk oblast) Alexander Lebed whose helicopter got tangled in power lines according to Emergencies Ministry then headed by Sergei Shoigu in 2002? At that time, Alexei Arbatov, a senior parliamentary deputy (and Yabloko member) suggested sabotage could have been its cause.
Perhaps the new leadership at the Russian Air Force took revenge for the downing of the Russian military plane during the mutiny.