Thanks. I'd like to hear more about the issue of bringing in Russian exiles to the West and how to navigate that. It feels different than handling regular visa/asylum requests from abroad, but is it? Philosophically it seems like the right thing to do, but realistically it feels a lot more complicated and potentially fraught with problems short term and long term.
Here's an alternative to negotiation. Unilateral action.
The quickest way to defeat Putin's agenda would be for the Ukrainians to disengage from Russian forces, in exchange for immediate membership in NATO. No negotiation required.
NATO troops and weapons could then flood in to Ukraine, along with a Marshall Plan style rebuilding effort. 80% of Ukraine would then be free, secure, safe and on the road to prosperity.
The Ukrainians have proven that Russia is no match for NATO, which should be clear even to the Russians at this point. If the Russians continue to attack the free part of Ukraine when it is a NATO member, they would then be choosing a war with NATO. If they wanted a war with NATO, we'd already have one.
Sanctions on Russia can be continually strengthened so as to further disconnect Russia from the global economy. Sooner or later Putin will die or his regime will fall, and the next Russian government can blame the war on Putin, wash it's hands of the war, and trade occupied Ukrainian territory for an end to sanctions. If they don't, keep tightening the noose on the Russian economy until they do.
Such an arrangement would be strategic defeat for Putin, but it would be defeat that he can sell as a victory to the Russian people. This seems important. It's only when Putin has a victory to sell that he'll be in a position to quit. It doesn't seem realistic to me that Putin will just accept a full Ukrainian victory as doing so is likely to put his regime, and his life, at risk. If that's true, then Putin would have little to lose by rolling even bigger dice in a desperate attempt to survive.
If the war drags on in an endless stalemate the occupied parts of Ukraine will be utterly demolished, the rest of Ukraine will remain under attack and at risk, the slaughter will continue, and the possibility of nuclear escalation continues. And Western public support for another "endless war" will gradually melt away. Putin is right about that.
At the end of this year's fighting season we should be prepared to declare victory, allow Putin to declare victory, and go ahead and do what's going to have to be done sooner or later, give Ukraine NATO membership. Don't drag it out, just do it.
I will admit to being skeptical that either the Ukrainians or all NATO members will be ready to take such a step. It should be explained to the reluctant that if the war drags on, sooner or later the Western publics will give up on Ukraine, a Republican will once again be in the White House, and then the war will be resolved on their terms.
1) Take an 80% victory right now, and continue to fight for the other 20% by diplomatic and financial methods.
2) Take unilateral action to end the war by making Ukraine a NATO member, and forget about negotiating with Putin.
Thanks. I'd like to hear more about the issue of bringing in Russian exiles to the West and how to navigate that. It feels different than handling regular visa/asylum requests from abroad, but is it? Philosophically it seems like the right thing to do, but realistically it feels a lot more complicated and potentially fraught with problems short term and long term.
Here's an alternative to negotiation. Unilateral action.
The quickest way to defeat Putin's agenda would be for the Ukrainians to disengage from Russian forces, in exchange for immediate membership in NATO. No negotiation required.
NATO troops and weapons could then flood in to Ukraine, along with a Marshall Plan style rebuilding effort. 80% of Ukraine would then be free, secure, safe and on the road to prosperity.
The Ukrainians have proven that Russia is no match for NATO, which should be clear even to the Russians at this point. If the Russians continue to attack the free part of Ukraine when it is a NATO member, they would then be choosing a war with NATO. If they wanted a war with NATO, we'd already have one.
Sanctions on Russia can be continually strengthened so as to further disconnect Russia from the global economy. Sooner or later Putin will die or his regime will fall, and the next Russian government can blame the war on Putin, wash it's hands of the war, and trade occupied Ukrainian territory for an end to sanctions. If they don't, keep tightening the noose on the Russian economy until they do.
Such an arrangement would be strategic defeat for Putin, but it would be defeat that he can sell as a victory to the Russian people. This seems important. It's only when Putin has a victory to sell that he'll be in a position to quit. It doesn't seem realistic to me that Putin will just accept a full Ukrainian victory as doing so is likely to put his regime, and his life, at risk. If that's true, then Putin would have little to lose by rolling even bigger dice in a desperate attempt to survive.
If the war drags on in an endless stalemate the occupied parts of Ukraine will be utterly demolished, the rest of Ukraine will remain under attack and at risk, the slaughter will continue, and the possibility of nuclear escalation continues. And Western public support for another "endless war" will gradually melt away. Putin is right about that.
At the end of this year's fighting season we should be prepared to declare victory, allow Putin to declare victory, and go ahead and do what's going to have to be done sooner or later, give Ukraine NATO membership. Don't drag it out, just do it.
I will admit to being skeptical that either the Ukrainians or all NATO members will be ready to take such a step. It should be explained to the reluctant that if the war drags on, sooner or later the Western publics will give up on Ukraine, a Republican will once again be in the White House, and then the war will be resolved on their terms.
1) Take an 80% victory right now, and continue to fight for the other 20% by diplomatic and financial methods.
2) Take unilateral action to end the war by making Ukraine a NATO member, and forget about negotiating with Putin.