Of course Ukraine should be in talks. If Trump with his bluster, could persuade Putin, you made your point, lost lot of life, keep what you took, call it a victory and stop fighting. US and west will not allow you to conquer Ukraine, but will not allow Ukraine in NATO either. Best for Russia to stop now. Trump talk? Bob L
Ukraine and the 29 non-US Nato Countries, plus the half dozen non-Nato countries (like Norway), should continue like they have started now in Paris, to isolate and exclude Russia and the US.
Putin only understands brute force, many commenters to my diaries in Daily Kos have said:
Fortunately the Germans with Rheinmetall and the French with Dassault have understood this and the are trying to ramp up production as fast as they can. The US military-industrial complex may regret the lackadaisical attitude of the US with supporting Ukraine with the weapons the need, because the competition is coming fast. It was starting with withholding anti-tank weapons (and even sniper rifles), to continue with withholding long range missiles. The latter to reach Moscow, to make it clear to the Russian Military and People that Putin was lying about a limited Police Action in Ukraine. And to reach the drone factories in Siberia.
The French now have started to deliver Mirage, maybe the Germans will deliver their long range missiles.
As the saying goes that for someone with a hammer, everything looks like nail, for the Diplomat everything looks like a problem which can be solved with talking.
Like Chamberlain and Daladier did 1938, thus pulling the rug out from under the German Military who were on train to dispose Hitler for military adventurism, and off we were for attacking Poland and on to WW2. And what unfortunately has McFaul propagated for some years, saying NATO should give the US the weapons they need, without ever being specific that this needs to be 1000 mile missiles.
Thus my list of conditions imposed on this evil attacker have to include:
1. No negotiations with the convicted war criminal Putin. Evil has to be defeated, not negotiated with. Maybe the Russian military will do what the German High Command was set to do 1938, when they were stymied from removing Hitler for military adventurism by Chamberlain-Daladier’s ill conceived “peace-in-our-time” illusion. Every year the power of Russian oil will diminish because more and more countries are burning up. India and China are already going to hell at 150 degrees. You recently moved to Tucson? Congratulations!
2. Unconditional withdrawal. Only after withdrawal Ukraine “reduces” bombarding Russian locations with home made missiles. By By forbidding Ukraine to use US arms to answer Russian criminal attacks, we have helped Putin to maintain the fiction that there was no war. Bombarding with Polish and German support will continue until Ukraine has sent the same number of bombs which rained on Kiev. Unconditional WW2-type surrender would be better, where one can hang some of the war criminals right away, as Poles and Ukrainians did with a few occupiers and Quislings after WW2. However, that probably will not happen. Unless a judge somewhere grabs Putin, and others, just as a British Judge grabbed Chilean Dictator Pinochet. Who “only” killed 3,000, tortured tens of thousands, and drove an estimated 200,000 Chileans into exile. For the good news: Already now, Putin is too afraid to partake in BRIC Meetings.
3. The withdrawal includes the Crimea, Moldavia, and the Donbass.
4. The Kerch Bridge, illegal, and too low, per UN GA resolution, will be dismantled.
5. After the Russian Black Sea Fleet has stopped squatting illegally (per UN GA) in Sevastopol and has moved to the (small) strip of Black Sea Cost Russia actually legally owns, the Ukraine will stop destroying Russian infrastructure. Alternatively, missiles will sink destroy the Sitting Duck Fleet in place.
6. A International War Court will be established using the Procedures and Rules developed 1946 in Nuremberg with Russian Input and Agreement. The City of Nürnberg will gladly host this court.
7. After proven cooperation (= making the accused and witnesses available) of the Russian Federation with this Court, NATO members will loosen the sanctions.
8. The Kaliningrad Oblast will be de-militarized. Alternatively, since Prussia was part of Poland when the Polish King Sigismund made the Hohenzollern Fredrick William Duke of Prussia, should revert to Poland. That should please Putin’s sense of history.
9. Sanctions will repair the $500 Billion or more of damage done to Ukraine’s infrastructure, including housing.
After the continuing and increasing criminal actions of Russia, my list is now even more valid than 2 1/2 years ago. Still valid is my Conjecture: [ https://bit.ly/3tpwicR ] why there will be no nuclear exchange, even so Russia tries to use the threat as leverage on the weak, in their perception, American voter’s mind. This indeed has influenced some weak, not all, Republican minds.
These are the sticks.
For the carrots, Russia should realize:
Escalation in missile reach from the present state, where the US is restraining Ukraine, might be the only way to prevent the forming of a New European Treaty Organisation of the front-line countries (Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia Hungary Romania Bulgaria plus France, Germany, maybe even Turkey, which ij a way is a frontline state). NETO will be out for revenge and deterrence [ https://bit.ly/39kwHGj ], without the US’s continued pretense it protects Ukraine from intensified Russian attacks – which the US did not!
NETO will exclude the United States as France has demanded for a longtime: After watching the US leaving the Kurds [https://bit.ly/3zjwT2Y ] and the Afghans [ https://bit.ly/3z8bJBT ] to the mercy of an enemy, and to break the agreement with Iran re stopping enrichment of Uranium, Europe can not rely on the US. Especially the Iran case ended word-wide non-proliferation for good, because it told North Korea they have to hurry up to get a believable nuclear deterrence. Which Kim Jong-un, a nuclear physicist himself, [ https://bit.ly/2XGIxm7 ] promptly did.
It has not helped trust in the US, that Republicans in Congress are continuously finding reasons to delay delivery of even ammunition. Just like Trump did in Afghanistan to accelerate the end of the war there. Shameful! And it does not help now that the US propagates Ukraine’s need giving up land for peace, Sudetenland-style. Europeans know how that ended.
Europeans also are aware that of the vaunted 4% of GDP the US spends on defense, more than 3% is spend on non-NATO items, like, for example, Guam, or spending on a Navy the US has refused to use for deterrence, and as a force to make the Black Sea a Sea of Peace [ https://bit.ly/3zjwT2Y ]. For example, for NATO proper, the 320 Million people US pays 22% of the cost, and the much smaller Germany with 80 Million people only, pays 17%.
On the other hand, US peace talks between N. Vietnam and the US occurred without S. Vietnam
US peace talks to end 1973 Arab-Israeli War occurred without Soviet Union -- the prime military supplier of Egypt and the other Arab states.
I do agree however, that Ukraine needs to be involved, of course. But as Sec State Rubio said, we must first determine Russia's terms. Not surprisingly, so far from what's been published,the Russians have come out with maximalist demands. The US must whittle these down to realistic demands, before coming to the Ukrainians.
Moreover, If the Russians persist on such demands, the US can drop the oil hammer on Putin's economy. I do not think it's coincidental that the talks are being held in Saudi Arabia.
The fact that the parties are talking is a significant first step ...
Of course Ukraine should be in talks. If Trump with his bluster, could persuade Putin, you made your point, lost lot of life, keep what you took, call it a victory and stop fighting. US and west will not allow you to conquer Ukraine, but will not allow Ukraine in NATO either. Best for Russia to stop now. Trump talk? Bob L
Ukraine becoming a member of the greatest defense organization ever, one with no intentions to wage war or occupy a country, is a must.
especially with a rapacious lying imperialist neighbor like Russia.
Naturally Trump will sell out the Ukraine.
Ukraine and the 29 non-US Nato Countries, plus the half dozen non-Nato countries (like Norway), should continue like they have started now in Paris, to isolate and exclude Russia and the US.
Putin only understands brute force, many commenters to my diaries in Daily Kos have said:
Boots-on-the-Ground April 30 [ https://bit.ly/3xQ3v3o ]
Boots-on-the-Ground April 12 [ https://bit.ly/3zCQZFI ]
Escalate! Missiles to Minsk [ https://bit.ly/39kwHGj ]
Boats on the Black Sea [ https://bit.ly/3zjwT2Y ]
Fortunately the Germans with Rheinmetall and the French with Dassault have understood this and the are trying to ramp up production as fast as they can. The US military-industrial complex may regret the lackadaisical attitude of the US with supporting Ukraine with the weapons the need, because the competition is coming fast. It was starting with withholding anti-tank weapons (and even sniper rifles), to continue with withholding long range missiles. The latter to reach Moscow, to make it clear to the Russian Military and People that Putin was lying about a limited Police Action in Ukraine. And to reach the drone factories in Siberia.
The French now have started to deliver Mirage, maybe the Germans will deliver their long range missiles.
As the saying goes that for someone with a hammer, everything looks like nail, for the Diplomat everything looks like a problem which can be solved with talking.
Like Chamberlain and Daladier did 1938, thus pulling the rug out from under the German Military who were on train to dispose Hitler for military adventurism, and off we were for attacking Poland and on to WW2. And what unfortunately has McFaul propagated for some years, saying NATO should give the US the weapons they need, without ever being specific that this needs to be 1000 mile missiles.
Thus my list of conditions imposed on this evil attacker have to include:
1. No negotiations with the convicted war criminal Putin. Evil has to be defeated, not negotiated with. Maybe the Russian military will do what the German High Command was set to do 1938, when they were stymied from removing Hitler for military adventurism by Chamberlain-Daladier’s ill conceived “peace-in-our-time” illusion. Every year the power of Russian oil will diminish because more and more countries are burning up. India and China are already going to hell at 150 degrees. You recently moved to Tucson? Congratulations!
2. Unconditional withdrawal. Only after withdrawal Ukraine “reduces” bombarding Russian locations with home made missiles. By By forbidding Ukraine to use US arms to answer Russian criminal attacks, we have helped Putin to maintain the fiction that there was no war. Bombarding with Polish and German support will continue until Ukraine has sent the same number of bombs which rained on Kiev. Unconditional WW2-type surrender would be better, where one can hang some of the war criminals right away, as Poles and Ukrainians did with a few occupiers and Quislings after WW2. However, that probably will not happen. Unless a judge somewhere grabs Putin, and others, just as a British Judge grabbed Chilean Dictator Pinochet. Who “only” killed 3,000, tortured tens of thousands, and drove an estimated 200,000 Chileans into exile. For the good news: Already now, Putin is too afraid to partake in BRIC Meetings.
3. The withdrawal includes the Crimea, Moldavia, and the Donbass.
4. The Kerch Bridge, illegal, and too low, per UN GA resolution, will be dismantled.
5. After the Russian Black Sea Fleet has stopped squatting illegally (per UN GA) in Sevastopol and has moved to the (small) strip of Black Sea Cost Russia actually legally owns, the Ukraine will stop destroying Russian infrastructure. Alternatively, missiles will sink destroy the Sitting Duck Fleet in place.
6. A International War Court will be established using the Procedures and Rules developed 1946 in Nuremberg with Russian Input and Agreement. The City of Nürnberg will gladly host this court.
7. After proven cooperation (= making the accused and witnesses available) of the Russian Federation with this Court, NATO members will loosen the sanctions.
8. The Kaliningrad Oblast will be de-militarized. Alternatively, since Prussia was part of Poland when the Polish King Sigismund made the Hohenzollern Fredrick William Duke of Prussia, should revert to Poland. That should please Putin’s sense of history.
9. Sanctions will repair the $500 Billion or more of damage done to Ukraine’s infrastructure, including housing.
After the continuing and increasing criminal actions of Russia, my list is now even more valid than 2 1/2 years ago. Still valid is my Conjecture: [ https://bit.ly/3tpwicR ] why there will be no nuclear exchange, even so Russia tries to use the threat as leverage on the weak, in their perception, American voter’s mind. This indeed has influenced some weak, not all, Republican minds.
These are the sticks.
For the carrots, Russia should realize:
Escalation in missile reach from the present state, where the US is restraining Ukraine, might be the only way to prevent the forming of a New European Treaty Organisation of the front-line countries (Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia Hungary Romania Bulgaria plus France, Germany, maybe even Turkey, which ij a way is a frontline state). NETO will be out for revenge and deterrence [ https://bit.ly/39kwHGj ], without the US’s continued pretense it protects Ukraine from intensified Russian attacks – which the US did not!
NETO will exclude the United States as France has demanded for a longtime: After watching the US leaving the Kurds [https://bit.ly/3zjwT2Y ] and the Afghans [ https://bit.ly/3z8bJBT ] to the mercy of an enemy, and to break the agreement with Iran re stopping enrichment of Uranium, Europe can not rely on the US. Especially the Iran case ended word-wide non-proliferation for good, because it told North Korea they have to hurry up to get a believable nuclear deterrence. Which Kim Jong-un, a nuclear physicist himself, [ https://bit.ly/2XGIxm7 ] promptly did.
It has not helped trust in the US, that Republicans in Congress are continuously finding reasons to delay delivery of even ammunition. Just like Trump did in Afghanistan to accelerate the end of the war there. Shameful! And it does not help now that the US propagates Ukraine’s need giving up land for peace, Sudetenland-style. Europeans know how that ended.
Europeans also are aware that of the vaunted 4% of GDP the US spends on defense, more than 3% is spend on non-NATO items, like, for example, Guam, or spending on a Navy the US has refused to use for deterrence, and as a force to make the Black Sea a Sea of Peace [ https://bit.ly/3zjwT2Y ]. For example, for NATO proper, the 320 Million people US pays 22% of the cost, and the much smaller Germany with 80 Million people only, pays 17%.
On the other hand, US peace talks between N. Vietnam and the US occurred without S. Vietnam
US peace talks to end 1973 Arab-Israeli War occurred without Soviet Union -- the prime military supplier of Egypt and the other Arab states.
I do agree however, that Ukraine needs to be involved, of course. But as Sec State Rubio said, we must first determine Russia's terms. Not surprisingly, so far from what's been published,the Russians have come out with maximalist demands. The US must whittle these down to realistic demands, before coming to the Ukrainians.
Moreover, If the Russians persist on such demands, the US can drop the oil hammer on Putin's economy. I do not think it's coincidental that the talks are being held in Saudi Arabia.
The fact that the parties are talking is a significant first step ...