Nice to read your proposed solutions/paths forward, let's hope to see some or all of them in the near future.
What I still don't understand is why an invitation to Ukraine into NATO is seen as bringing the US or other members into the war; from what I understand, Article 5 doesn't kick in until actual, official membership, which would take time (years?). Wouldn't the benefits of inviting them outweigh whatever worries the Biden Admin. has on this?
Unfortunately, some of the Biden Administration’s policy implementation processes (e.g. sequential response is not strategic in this circumstance) and public comments continue to convey uncertainty and irresoluteness and allow for the perception that Moscow is dictating US policy and that the president is ceding escalation dominance to the Russians.
Don’t state what we will not do—alternatively do what is required and accordingly project US power and confidence. Aiming to win a war is the best way to fight it—Escalation dominance (or the perception of it)should not be ceded to the opponent. Self-deterrence is not an efficacious policy.
Freedom of navigation has served as a principle of the post-World War II system of world order and is our guiding doctrinal strategy in the Indo-pacific. President Biden should enforce a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP)in the Black Sea. If you’re not willing to enforce this principle in the Black Sea( and geographically it has more NATO territory than it does Russian) what does that convey to Beijing in the Indo-Pacific? The world is watching— and it’s past time to respond. Fundamentally, secure and open the Black Sea— it’s not a Russian lake.
Good points about the non-Russian lake, the Black Sea. I don't understand this either, how the world lets the Russians continue to hijack the export of essential foodstuffs. It can't go on.
You are right when you mention that not accepting Ukraine into NATO until the war is over only encourages Putin to drag the conflict.
I know there is a risk, but an option would be to accept Ukraine into NATO with the territory they now have under control, and be willing to stand behind them. Expelling Russians out of the rest of Ukraine would be up to Ukrainian’s with our weapons. That would secure Ukraine’s existence, and allow them to focus all their resources into expelling the enemy out of their territory.
Like it or not, if Russia is to be stopped, we’ll have to get more involved confronting them, and the more worn out they are the better for us. If communists end up succeeding in Ukraine the West and its allies will later have to pay a much heftier price for now fearing Putin and his cronies. What do you think?
If the decision to extend and invite to Ukraine to join NATO and it takes years, it won't be Biden making that decision even if it takes five more years. It will be the US President elected in 2028 that will make that decision. The entry to NATO should be shortened if there is a ceasefire the offer should be extended immediately, and I suspect Ukraine will join. The current President of Ukraine is a wartime President, how will he fare during a period of peace. A US conflict with China will totally shift the US's war machine away from Ukraine to a more pressing threat.
Nice to read your proposed solutions/paths forward, let's hope to see some or all of them in the near future.
What I still don't understand is why an invitation to Ukraine into NATO is seen as bringing the US or other members into the war; from what I understand, Article 5 doesn't kick in until actual, official membership, which would take time (years?). Wouldn't the benefits of inviting them outweigh whatever worries the Biden Admin. has on this?
Well-written article.
Some additional extemporaneous thoughts:
Unfortunately, some of the Biden Administration’s policy implementation processes (e.g. sequential response is not strategic in this circumstance) and public comments continue to convey uncertainty and irresoluteness and allow for the perception that Moscow is dictating US policy and that the president is ceding escalation dominance to the Russians.
Don’t state what we will not do—alternatively do what is required and accordingly project US power and confidence. Aiming to win a war is the best way to fight it—Escalation dominance (or the perception of it)should not be ceded to the opponent. Self-deterrence is not an efficacious policy.
Freedom of navigation has served as a principle of the post-World War II system of world order and is our guiding doctrinal strategy in the Indo-pacific. President Biden should enforce a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP)in the Black Sea. If you’re not willing to enforce this principle in the Black Sea( and geographically it has more NATO territory than it does Russian) what does that convey to Beijing in the Indo-Pacific? The world is watching— and it’s past time to respond. Fundamentally, secure and open the Black Sea— it’s not a Russian lake.
Good points about the non-Russian lake, the Black Sea. I don't understand this either, how the world lets the Russians continue to hijack the export of essential foodstuffs. It can't go on.
Congratulations, its is a good article.
You are right when you mention that not accepting Ukraine into NATO until the war is over only encourages Putin to drag the conflict.
I know there is a risk, but an option would be to accept Ukraine into NATO with the territory they now have under control, and be willing to stand behind them. Expelling Russians out of the rest of Ukraine would be up to Ukrainian’s with our weapons. That would secure Ukraine’s existence, and allow them to focus all their resources into expelling the enemy out of their territory.
Like it or not, if Russia is to be stopped, we’ll have to get more involved confronting them, and the more worn out they are the better for us. If communists end up succeeding in Ukraine the West and its allies will later have to pay a much heftier price for now fearing Putin and his cronies. What do you think?
If the decision to extend and invite to Ukraine to join NATO and it takes years, it won't be Biden making that decision even if it takes five more years. It will be the US President elected in 2028 that will make that decision. The entry to NATO should be shortened if there is a ceasefire the offer should be extended immediately, and I suspect Ukraine will join. The current President of Ukraine is a wartime President, how will he fare during a period of peace. A US conflict with China will totally shift the US's war machine away from Ukraine to a more pressing threat.