It's interesting how people are willing to go over the heads of Ukrainians and directly negotiate "land for peace" with Putin, but only Ukrainian land. I wonder what these same people would say if Ukraine suddenly started taking Russian territory that was historically Ukrainian? They would sing a different tune. "Land for peace" would suddenly morph into "withdraw to your international borders."
The principal problem Ukraine faces now is not how to negotiate a peace with Putin. It is how to acquire the necessary weapons to drive Putin's forces from Ukraine. Folks Inside the Beltway continue to brag, with some justice, about how much we have done to aid Ukraine in its efforts to rearm. The problem is that we are not doing it quickly enough, and we are not giving them everything they need to win.
After 23 years in power, no one can be under any illusions that a peace with Putin is anything more than a temporary ceasefire. He and his regime will only be deterred from attacking again if they are driven out of Ukraine, and faced with a force that they cannot defeat. We aren't there yet -- not even close.
Never, ever, deal at all in any way with Putin unless your back is absolutely knife-proof. For him, an agreement is not ever an obligation. It is only a foot in the door.
As I heard Anne Appelbaum put it in a recent webinar, to establish a cease fire in Ukraine now would not be a case of giving "peace a chance," but a case of merely "freezing a conflict" for the time being. As the record shows, negotiating a truce in 2014 after Russian equipping and direction of the rebellion in Ukraine's eastern provinces did not result in peace but instead more aggressive and overt attacks by the Russians in 2022. The essential ingredient for peace in Ukraine, as Appelbaum puts and I agree, is a realization within the Kremlin's governing circles that the conquest of Ukraine is not feasible and carrying on the war is far more costly and destructive to Russia's interests than closing it down. Russia reached that conclusion years ago in Afghanistan. With continued supplies of more and better arms to Ukraine, together with the necessary training and logistics support, we could hasten the day when the leaders in Putin's Kremlin reach the same conclusion.
Hi. I think you are being kind. This approach, again, is coming mainly from Republicans in the United States. Many of these people tried the argument 6 or more months ago that the US should not necessarily support Ukraine at all. They received a harsh backlash. Now, the approach is “don’t you want peace?” It is just land. Well, historically, it is usually always just land. I fear, though, still there is a large segment of the US political leadership and hence population being fed messages from Russia on a range of issues through some media outlets and some social media outlets. This has the feel of one of those. It sounds nice. Peace always sounds nice, but as has been discussed here by Dr. McFaul and many others quite well... can you ever trust Putin? He crossed a line and has used methods since that make it nearly impossible to see him as the deal maker here for victory, defeat,or truce. If I were in Ukraine, I can’t see how you would ever rest easy with him in charge with it without an agreement.
That said, what comes after Putin, and there will be an after Putin, will hopefully be better and put at least some of these problems to rest. But that person could be worse...
So, I don’t usually find myself agreeing with more hawkish types generally, but I am suspicious of US folks so quick to do deals with Putin more... that threat and interference continues...
I guess this foolishness needs to be slapped down whenever it rises but the bottom line is that there's no way any democratically elected Ukrainian President is going to OK ceding it's internationally recognized borders...at least not in the foreseeable future. If people want to shorten the war they should give more arms to Ukraine. They've been reasonably armed but could definitely use more. That would have the advantage of mangling the Russian army to the extent that it would put off more attempted land grabs for years. It would be a good investment given that no NATO members would be put in harms way.
That NATO official's comment about swapping NATO membership for peace was outrageous and insulting to Ukraine, its leadership, and to his fellow NATO members and their staff. The naivete and impatience of guys like him are frustrating to watch/read.
I think the house is too divided here in the United States to broker a peace or ending to the Ukrainian war. The citizens here in the US will soon tire ff the war when they see the monies that are being spent and the great unbalanced federal budget here in the US and imminent failure of Social Security and Medicare. This war will slip away like Vietnam did in 1969 when it became wildly unpopular. at home. People are going to ask who is more important me as a citizen or an abstract idea in Ukraine. The days of the US globally jousting at windmills are rapidly coming to a close. If Putin survives and plays the waiting game, it will be his. America's heart is not in this conflict for the long-term. The US is entering a period of isolationism based on leaving Afghanistan, Country building in Iraq, Ukraine and a messy divided house at home.
It's interesting how people are willing to go over the heads of Ukrainians and directly negotiate "land for peace" with Putin, but only Ukrainian land. I wonder what these same people would say if Ukraine suddenly started taking Russian territory that was historically Ukrainian? They would sing a different tune. "Land for peace" would suddenly morph into "withdraw to your international borders."
The principal problem Ukraine faces now is not how to negotiate a peace with Putin. It is how to acquire the necessary weapons to drive Putin's forces from Ukraine. Folks Inside the Beltway continue to brag, with some justice, about how much we have done to aid Ukraine in its efforts to rearm. The problem is that we are not doing it quickly enough, and we are not giving them everything they need to win.
After 23 years in power, no one can be under any illusions that a peace with Putin is anything more than a temporary ceasefire. He and his regime will only be deterred from attacking again if they are driven out of Ukraine, and faced with a force that they cannot defeat. We aren't there yet -- not even close.
Never, ever, deal at all in any way with Putin unless your back is absolutely knife-proof. For him, an agreement is not ever an obligation. It is only a foot in the door.
As I heard Anne Appelbaum put it in a recent webinar, to establish a cease fire in Ukraine now would not be a case of giving "peace a chance," but a case of merely "freezing a conflict" for the time being. As the record shows, negotiating a truce in 2014 after Russian equipping and direction of the rebellion in Ukraine's eastern provinces did not result in peace but instead more aggressive and overt attacks by the Russians in 2022. The essential ingredient for peace in Ukraine, as Appelbaum puts and I agree, is a realization within the Kremlin's governing circles that the conquest of Ukraine is not feasible and carrying on the war is far more costly and destructive to Russia's interests than closing it down. Russia reached that conclusion years ago in Afghanistan. With continued supplies of more and better arms to Ukraine, together with the necessary training and logistics support, we could hasten the day when the leaders in Putin's Kremlin reach the same conclusion.
Hi. I think you are being kind. This approach, again, is coming mainly from Republicans in the United States. Many of these people tried the argument 6 or more months ago that the US should not necessarily support Ukraine at all. They received a harsh backlash. Now, the approach is “don’t you want peace?” It is just land. Well, historically, it is usually always just land. I fear, though, still there is a large segment of the US political leadership and hence population being fed messages from Russia on a range of issues through some media outlets and some social media outlets. This has the feel of one of those. It sounds nice. Peace always sounds nice, but as has been discussed here by Dr. McFaul and many others quite well... can you ever trust Putin? He crossed a line and has used methods since that make it nearly impossible to see him as the deal maker here for victory, defeat,or truce. If I were in Ukraine, I can’t see how you would ever rest easy with him in charge with it without an agreement.
That said, what comes after Putin, and there will be an after Putin, will hopefully be better and put at least some of these problems to rest. But that person could be worse...
So, I don’t usually find myself agreeing with more hawkish types generally, but I am suspicious of US folks so quick to do deals with Putin more... that threat and interference continues...
I lived in Russia for 22 years, starting with Putin’s first day in office. I agree 100% with ambassador McFaul.
I guess this foolishness needs to be slapped down whenever it rises but the bottom line is that there's no way any democratically elected Ukrainian President is going to OK ceding it's internationally recognized borders...at least not in the foreseeable future. If people want to shorten the war they should give more arms to Ukraine. They've been reasonably armed but could definitely use more. That would have the advantage of mangling the Russian army to the extent that it would put off more attempted land grabs for years. It would be a good investment given that no NATO members would be put in harms way.
That NATO official's comment about swapping NATO membership for peace was outrageous and insulting to Ukraine, its leadership, and to his fellow NATO members and their staff. The naivete and impatience of guys like him are frustrating to watch/read.
Excellent article, Mike!!! Keep up the excellent analysis!! I really enjoy your blog!!
I think the house is too divided here in the United States to broker a peace or ending to the Ukrainian war. The citizens here in the US will soon tire ff the war when they see the monies that are being spent and the great unbalanced federal budget here in the US and imminent failure of Social Security and Medicare. This war will slip away like Vietnam did in 1969 when it became wildly unpopular. at home. People are going to ask who is more important me as a citizen or an abstract idea in Ukraine. The days of the US globally jousting at windmills are rapidly coming to a close. If Putin survives and plays the waiting game, it will be his. America's heart is not in this conflict for the long-term. The US is entering a period of isolationism based on leaving Afghanistan, Country building in Iraq, Ukraine and a messy divided house at home.