McFaul’s 2024 Year in Review Newsletter

Happy New Year!

As many of you know, since I left the government in 2014, I have been writing a monthly newsletter sharing my activities and publications, punctuated by an end-of-year “year in review” edition. With a few hours to spare till 2025, I would like to share some reflections and key memories from 2024.

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In 2024, voters of more than 60 countries went to the polls. Shaken by increasing prices, divided over cultural matters, and frustrated with the political status quo, voters worldwide made their voices heard both at the polls and later on the streets in Venezuela and Georgia, when string evidence showed that the electoral processes there were not free and fair. I closely followed and commented on these two elections in 2024 because I was hopeful for the possibility of a democratic breakthrough in Venezuela and democratic resilience in Georgia. To my democratic friends in both countries, I still am cheering for your victories. I wrote about why Georgia’s democracy matters for Americans and our democratic allies around the world here).

The election of greatest consequence for me personally, and probably for the world as a whole, was the reelection of Donald Trump here in the United States. In that presidential election, I supported and served as an unpaid advisor to Vice-President Kamala Harris. On foreign policy issues, I align much more closely with the stated positions of candidate Harris compared to candidate Trump, as I wrote here. I also have not forgotten about the ways in which President Trump undermined American democracy during his first term, including most tragically on January 6, 2021. Several of his initial nominations for cabinet positions were not inspiring. At the same time, I congratulated President-elect Trump on Election Day and will now continue to express my views about what I believe is best for my country. I hope that some of these ideas might resonate with the Trump administration (on foreign policy, it looks like it will be an eclectic group) as well as with American society more broadly. Our constitution gives the president a lot of power regarding foreign policy. But we are not a monarchy. I plan to remain engaged in these foreign policy debates, animated by the belief that the United States does not have Republican or Democratic interests but American national interests. For my thoughts on foreign policy and other matters, subscribe to McFaul’s World on Substack. In 2025, I plan to expand my writings and activities more broadly there.

In 2024, I continued with my day jobs at Stanford, running the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), teaching courses in Political Science, participating in research and public policy activities both at FSI and the Hoover Institution, and trying to wrap up my upcoming book, Autocrats Versus Democrats: Lessons from the Cold War for Competing with China and Russia in the 21st Century. I am mailing this manuscript to the publisher this week! As always, I learned a lot from my Stanford colleagues and students, especially from my winter and spring quarter seminars on great power competition (one of which I taught on campus and the other at Stanford’s Center at Peking University in Beijing). It is a real privilege to work at Stanford, or more accurately, to be a 44th-year student at Stanford.

In 2024, I continued to engage in the public policy debate regarding Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I made countless arguments for continued military assistance to Ukraine and more effective sanctions on TV, radio, X, on my Substack page, McFaul’s World, in print, and through the International Working Group on Russian Sanctions that I coordinate. At the beginning of the year, I wrote an article in Foreign Policy titled “The Case for Supporting Ukraine Is Crystal Clear.” In that piece, amid the Congressional debates regarding Ukraine at the time, I explained why Americans and small d democrats around the world should continue to care and support Ukraine. Thankfully, in April, the U.S. House of Representatives finally voted on and approved a new aid package to Ukraine—a huge victory for Ukraine, the U.S., global democracy, and me personally, as I spent months working to help get this deal passed.

In 2024, I traveled to Europe several times, mostly to discuss Ukraine and European security, including Vilnius, Lithuania for the “Snow Meeting,” Munich, Germany for the Munich Security Conference, Berlin for the Boris Nemtsov Forum, and Prague, Czech Republic for the Forum 2000. I am grateful to the organizers of all these conferences for the opportunity to attend and speak.

In July, there was another big win for Ukraine. The biggest success of the 75th NATO Summit in Washington was NATO’s commitment to supporting Ukraine on its “irreversible” path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO, as outlined in its final communiqué. Another success is that NATO has decided to establish the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, otherwise known as NSATU, to coordinate the provision of military equipment and training for Ukraine by Allies and partners. This is a great achievement, though a horrible acronym!

Together with Robert Person, I wrote a chapter on “Why Putin Invaded Ukraine” for a terrific book edited by Hal Brands titled War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World. In my travels both abroad and in the United States, I am surprised by how sticky some of the myths regarding the causes of this horrific war are. Blaming “NATO expansions” as the reason is the worst of them all. My main motivation for writing this chapter with Rob was to offer what we believe is a comprehensive explanation for the start of this war, complete with a serious engagement of alternative hypotheses. For those teaching, we think our piece will be a fantastic addition to your syllabi!

This year, I also stayed in close contact with many U.S. government officials, members of Congress and their staff, and my Ukrainian colleagues, friends, and students, as well as Russian opposition leaders living in exile. The paramount goal that I pursued in all these interactions was brainstorming new and better ideas to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as fast as possible. In December alone, I wrote “Biden’s Unfinished Business on Ukraine,” “You Can’t Be a China Hawk and a Russia Dove at the Same Time,” “Americans Do Not Want or Need a Revolution in our National Security State” on Substack, as well as published “How Trump Can End the War in Ukraine” in Foreign Affairs.

Speaking on Russian opposition, this year in February, I lost a dear friend, Alexei Navalny. In response to Alexei’s death, I wrote a personal piece, “Goodbye to my fearless friend, Alexei Navalny,” published in The Washington Post.

On a more positive note, on August 1^st, three Americans, several Russian freedom fighters, and five German citizens gained a new lease on life after the completion of the most complicated swap in the history of Russia’s relations with the United States and Europe. It was a joyous day! Nothing is more precious than the gift of life outside of a prison cell. Read more here. At FSI, we even got a chance to host one of them; Vladimir Kara-Murza, one of the most prominent Russian opposition politicians, delivered our annual Robert G. Wesson Lecture in International Relations Theory and Practice. You can watch both his lecture and our discussion here.

Through interviews on MSNBC, Ukrainian, and independent Russian media channels, as well as my talks on the “Causes and Consequences of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine” and “Why We Should Care About Ukraine,” I tried to help explain the war to the general public, from Montana to Texas. I was also thrilled to talk to the Golden State Warriors about international politics! Like on the court, Draymond Green was most enthusiastic in asking questions.

As I wrote on Substack, in April, I traveled to China. This was my first time there since 2019. If a few years ago there would have been nothing special about such a trip, 2024 is a different era in U.S.-China relations. In my many meetings with Chinese scholars, officials, and students, I was struck by how little they knew about basic dynamics in American politics and foreign policy. I also was struck by some of my misconceptions about China after a five-year absence. The reason is obvious: we have not had any direct interactions with each other in some time. We need more engagement, not isolation, to better understand each other. In our new era of great power competition, we will have many disagreements with China that will not be solved by more talk or diplomacy. But especially in this new, more confrontational era, we cannot allow disagreements, conflict, and, of course, war due to misperceptions and bad information.

In June, I returned to Asia, first to attend conferences and meet government officials in Seoul, South Korea, and Tokyo, Japan.

This year, I was awarded the Order for Merits to Lithuania by the President of the Republic of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausea. It is truly an honor! While giving a talk at FSI, the Ambassador of Lithuania to the United States, Audra Plepyte, presented me with the medal.

At FSI, Ukraine was not the only focus. We had a busy and productive year. We hosted a large number of world leaders and thinkers in one year on campus, including the Prime Minster Kishida of Japan and President Yoon of South Korea, for a historic meeting together on our campus (read about it here), former president of Slovakia, Zuzana Čaputová (read about it here and watch a recording here), Ukraine’s former President Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine’s Member of Parliament Oleksii Goncharenko, EU High Representative Josep Borrell, a prominent South African human rights and environmental justice activist Kumi Naidoo, Ukrainian leader Sergiy Leshchenko, an Academy Award-winning director and actor Sean Penn (read more about it here or listen to this episode of our World Class podcast).

We also launched a new Taiwan Program to examine Taiwan’s challenges and opportunities and hosted many high-level industry leaders and scholars for its inaugural conference Innovate Taiwan: Shaping the Future of a Postindustrial Society. And our scholars continue to publish numerous books and articles on virtually every topic related to international affairs. Check out our website here. I am proud and honored to lead the stellar groups of scholars at FSI. Be sure to look for future episodes of my World Class podcast here.

Finally, as we head into the new year, I want to thank all of you for your support, well-thought-out comments, and terrific questions! A special thank you to my paid readers on Subtack for joining the Zoom Q&As and supporting my work. I always enjoy and learn a lot from our interactions and hope to do more in the new year. If you have any ideas or suggestions for how I can improve this page, please let me know in the comments below.

Chag Sameach, Merry Christmas, Happy Kwanzaa, and Happy New Year everyone! Wishing you a happy and peaceful holiday season and praying for those in difficult circumstances. And hoping 2025 will be more peaceful than 2024.

Stay tuned for more in 2025!

With warm wishes,

Mike